A few days after the elimination of Hizbullah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, the Lebanese body politic behaved as if the time had come to call for a national mobilization to elect a president for Lebanon, a position vacant since October 2022. Such an election would trigger a chain reaction with the nomination of a legal government, a legal prime minister, and top positions in the state. Most importantly, such a president would be allowed by the constitution to negotiate a political settlement ending the war with Israel and marginalizing Hizbullah’s role in Lebanese politics.
The heads of the Muslim and Druze parties (Lebanese Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Nabih Berri, head of the Amal movement, and the Druze Walid Jumblatt) convened and decided on a road map which was also agreed upon by three Christian parties (the Lebanese forces, the Kataeb and the National Liberals) out of five main ones that constitute the Christian vote. It seemed likewise that Hizbullah itself had agreed on the roadmap, conceding the tremor Israel had subjected it to with the decapitation of most of its political and military leadership. In essence, it was a declaration that called for an immediate ceasefire, the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, and the deployment of the Lebanese army to the south of Lebanon (replacing Hizbullah’s presence in the area).
All parties seemed to agree that it was time to stop blocking elections that had paralyzed the state and revive the process of electing a president.
The Iranian Province on the Mediterranean
Feeling the change of the wind, and with an effort to prevent the collapse of Hizbullah, Iran intervened by dispatching to Beirut its foreign minister Araqchi, who conducted stormy conversations with both Mikati and Nabih Berri, conversations that Walid Jumblatt qualified as humiliating. As a result, the Shiite component of Lebanese politics, namely what it called the “Shiite twins,” conceded to the idea that there would be no presidential elections until the end of the war. Moreover, a meeting was held a few days later between the Shiite twins’ candidates for the presidency, Speaker of the Parliament Suleiman Frangieh and Nabih Berri, head of the Shiite Amal formation. Frangieh, a Christian Maronite and a Hizbullah ally, reiterated that he saw himself as a candidate for presidency backed by the Shiite twins! Nabih Berri saw himself delegated by Iran to discuss the conditions of a ceasefire while Iran pushed for the continuation and escalation of the armed conflict with Israel. The proposed nomination of the army chief, General Joseph Aoun, identified as pro-American, discussed earlier in the road map presented by Mikati-Jumblatt-Berri, was dropped as unacceptable to Iran.
Iran has imposed its political will on Lebanon, forced the Lebanese body politic to retreat, and signified to all parties that it solely retained the political decisions in Lebanon and that everything must be in accordance with its interests. Indeed, the decision in Lebanon was made in Tehran by the Supreme Leader, the “Walih el Faqih,” Ali Khamenei. Moreover, seeing the catastrophe of its protégé and Hassan Nasrallah’s replacement buried in secret and hastily, Iran nominated as caretaker a high-ranking Iranian officer who is now supposed to run the collective leadership of Hizbullah while military advisers conduct military operations against Israel in the absence of a field leadership almost annihilated by Israel.
It is no wonder then that the Lebanese body politic seeks to close its schisms, traditional quarrels, divisions, and petty politics with one side demanding an end to the October 8, 2023, strategy devised by Nasrallah to maintain a Lebanese front until Israel complies with the conditions set by Hamas for a permanent ceasefire, all the while conducting Lebanon’s presidential elections under fire. This side of the Lebanese political map demanded an immediate meeting of parliament with the critical quorum of 86 members out of 128 (two-thirds) and the election of a president who “would do more than chase flies in the Baabda presidential palace” as quipped by the leader of the biggest Christian faction, Samir Geagea.
On the other side of the Lebanese political map, Iran’s stooges, in line with Tehran’s strategy, demanded a continuation of the Hizbullah war and a new political strategy. They introduced a new concept in Lebanese politics. A new buzzword appeared in the political dialogue in Lebanon: a “consensual president,” a president who would be accepted by all parties and would not be identified with any of the existing political parties.
A New Situation in Lebanon
It must be noted that Hizbullah has lost some of its positions of strength in Lebanon. According to various sources, the international airport of Lebanon, the Rafiq Hariri Airport and, the Beirut Port, which were run solely by Hizbullah have been transferred to the control of the Lebanese army. Criticism against Hizbullah is spreading in Lebanon, not only in Christian circles but also by Shiite clerics who traditionally opposed Hizbullah, such as Allamah Ali al-Amin. Hizbullah’s Dahyeh bastion neighborhood in Beirut is characterized by chaos with looters beaten and tied to poles in public places. Hizbullah’s troops are under attack and hardly recovered from the blows administered by Israel.
More significant is the fact that since Hassan Nasrallah’s elimination on September 27, Iran has not decided on his successor. His cousin Hashem Safi el-Din who was groomed to succeed him in case of sudden disappearance, seems to be buried deep in a huge crater after the bombing of his bunker by the Israeli air force. The latest reports suggest that 69-years-old Ibrahim al Amin al Sayed, the head of Hizbullah’s political committee may be chosen as the new secretary-general.
Do these events herald the beginning of the end of Hizbullah’s grip on Lebanon? Political talk in Lebanon seems to agree that Hizbullah would remain as a political party on the day after the end of the war, provided Israel continues on its course of destroying Hizbullah’s military infrastructure.
