Alerts

Where Are Things Headed with Iran?

Israel cannot and should not lead a regime change operation in Tehran on its own. Its role is to weaken the regime’s capacity for harm in the immediate term.
Share this
Ayatollah Khamenei with officials and state executives
Ayatollah Khamenei with officials and state executives. (The Office of the Supreme Leader)

Table of Contents

In October 2022, Farhad Razavi, a 29-year-old from northern Tehran, stood in the heart of Argentina Square – one of the symbolic epicenters of the protest movement that erupted following the death of Mahsa Amini. He didn’t chant slogans, didn’t hold a sign. He simply stood there, literally, in tense silence, staring at a police officer who stared back at him. Farhad despised the Iranian regime – the religious coercion, the oppression of women, the Revolutionary Guards junta that had stolen his future. But deep inside, he carried an ancient warning: if he were to fall, no one would remain to feed his sick mother, no one to pay the rent. It wasn’t fear of death that held him back, but fear of life without him.

Nearly three years have passed since that turbulent autumn. In June 2025, following a series of Israeli strikes deep within Iran – which inflicted lethal damage on military, nuclear, and governmental infrastructure – the Islamic Republic found itself humiliated, surprised, and, above all, exposed. For a few days, it seemed as if something had cracked – a hidden line of immunity had been crossed, revealing a regime that appeared confused, battered, and possibly even collapsing.

But the regime’s recovery was faster than expected. The Revolutionary Guards regained control through a ruthless wave of arrests, intense information filtering, and an influx of funds from the “shadow economy” – an elaborate network of smuggling, monopolies, and economic loyalties that sustains tens of thousands of people, including many who are not necessarily regime supporters, but are economically dependent on it. The Iranian public, although sick and tired of the ayatollahs and the system, did not flood the streets. Fear and apprehension – even after the regime had been exposed in its nakedness – still prevailed.

This is where a critical distinction must be made regarding the objectives of the operation: between paralyzing the regime – significantly impairing its ability to cause harm militarily, ideologically, and through terrorism – and toppling it entirely. The former can be achieved through overt means: military action, sanctions, international isolation, and diplomatic pressure. But the regime’s collapse is an entirely different goal, one that requires a multilayered strategic operation, and above all – patience, sophistication, and consistent action.

Western policy – particularly that of the United States – must distinguish between means and ends. The true goal is not yet another improved version of the 2015 nuclear deal from which President Trump withdrew – a deal that at best delays Iran’s nuclear bomb by a few years. Negotiations must not resume from the point they were paused before the strikes. The recent round, led by Middle East Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, was charged, doomed from the start, and highlighted the gap between a Western rational, interest- and utility-based approach, and a jihadist ideological vision based on a concept of eternity – a dream that culminates in the holy grail of destroying the Zionist entity and imposing Sharia law on the West.

If negotiations resume, they cannot be limited to “preventing enrichment” – they must include new, deep, and clear baseline conditions: dismantling of missile and UAV infrastructure, halting support for terrorism, and the gradual opening of the economy to transparency and fair trade. This time – the failure of negotiations must not lead to a “worse deal,” but to a clear and unequivocal message: the American bombing was merely a preview. Next time could be the regime’s end.

However, it is important to remember: regime change does not happen in headlines, but between the lines. Open threats that unite Iranians around their leadership are counterproductive – as often happens when external threats enter the public discourse. Real regime overthrow must be conducted covertly: collaboration with opposition elements, support for subversive information networks, and funneling resources into centers of internal unrest – from universities to persecuted ethnic communities.

Israel, in its current state, cannot and should not lead a regime change operation in Tehran on its own. Its role is to weaken the regime’s capacity for harm in the immediate term – a necessary, but insufficient action. Only deep and strategic cooperation with the United States can drive a historic shift. The responsibility lies first and foremost with the United States – due to its power, influence, and ability to build an international coalition around this vision. Israel has laid the groundwork for the United States to create a new visionary compass – to set a new coordinate system that could influence the world for generations.

The conclusion is clear: no more attempts to “bend” the regime with carrots and sticks, but instead the creation of a new horizon in which the very existence of an extreme, violent, and dark regime is no longer accepted as a given, but recognized as a problem that must be solved.

As Iranian poet Simin Behbahani wrote:

“They tied our eyes, but not our thoughts.
They conquered our streets, but not our future.”

That future depends not only on the courage of Farhad and his friends, but on the determination of the West not to allow tyranny to continue dictating the agenda of the Middle East and the entire world.

Oded Ailam

Oded Ailam is a former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad and is currently a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA).
Share this

Invest in JCFA

Subscribe to Daily Alert

The Daily Alert – Israel news digest appears every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

Related Items

Stay Informed, Always

Get the latest news, insights, and updates directly in your inbox—be the first to know!

Subscribe to Jerusalem Issue Briefs
The Daily Alert – Israel news digest appears every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

Notifications

The Jerusalem Center
Canada investigating Israeli-Canadian IDF soldiers?
JCFA senior researcher, Amb. Alan Baker slams the probe as a “political PR stunt with no legal basis.” “This isn’t justice—it’s a betrayal. Canada is siding with PLO propaganda over facts.”
11:29am
The Jerusalem Center
What makes a child believe killing a #Jew is justified?

In PA textbooks, Jews are called liars and frauds; their fate: elimination. This is #indoctrination—not #education. But change is happening. On East to West, @IMPACT_SE CEO Marcus Sheff exposes how #UNRWA-funded schools are fueling extremism—and what real reform looks like.  Listen now on Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/2JHqh973U  Watch on YouTube: youtu.be/8OkJTGNfVUc

11:43am
The Jerusalem Center
Highlights from the @Jerusalem_Post Annual Conference in NYC:

Dr. @Dan_Diker, President of the JCFA: “October 7 wasn’t just an attack on Israel — it was a blow to the U.S. on Israeli soil. It demands moral clarity and a united front between Israel and the U.S. to defeat jihadist terror.”

2:20pm
The Jerusalem Center
@XAVIAERD says it like it is

Well, @XAVIAERD says it like it is: If you’re part of “#Queers for #Palestine,” he’ll pay for your flight to #Gaza. Go see for yourself how they treat LGBTQ+ people over there. Don’t miss this bold take on the Israel-Hamas war and the woke right.

2:32pm
The Jerusalem Center
“This isn’t Israel vs. Hamas — it’s the frontline of the free world.”

“This isn’t Israel vs. Hamas — it’s the frontline of the free world.” On Our Middle East by @JNS_org, @Dan_Diker@KhaledAbuToameh (JCFA/@GatestoneInst) break it down: If Hamas isn’t crushed, Iran wins. The jihadis—from #Gaza to your campus—get the green light. Diker: “This war is for the West.” No fluff. No filters. Just raw insight from two insiders who actually know what’s going on.  Watch: youtu.be/4Aq_zcbb4Yo

2:15pm
The Jerusalem Center
5/5 Lt. Col. Kalo on East to West with @smartinezamir:

“This operation showcases Israel’s strategic intelligence superiority both regionally and globally. It demonstrates the moral commitment to recovered soldiers and also strengthens Israel’s position with allies.” youtube.com/watch?v=nIvNNi

2:07pm
The Jerusalem Center
4/5 The operation built on intelligence gathered during the 2019 #Baumel recovery

#Mossad agents operated under cover in #Syria for years, visiting a graveyard multiple times under fire to collect remains for DNA matching. The intelligence community’s evolution combines technology, big data analysis, and human intelligence capabilities.

2:02pm
The Jerusalem Center
3/5 This recovery coincided with the release of Israeli hostage Edan Alexander

This recovery coincided with the release of Israeli hostage Edan Alexander from #Hamas in #Gaza, significantly boosting national morale amid an ongoing conflict now stretching over 18 months. The dual successes demonstrate #Israel‘s unwavering commitment to bringing all soldiers home.

1:58pm
The Jerusalem Center
2/5 The operation used the power vacuum following #Assad’s fall from #Damascus

Lt. Col. Avi Kalo, former head of IDF Prisoners & Missing Persons Division, calls it “an outstanding event that brings hope and new spirit to the people of Israel.” The operation utilized the power vacuum following #Assad‘s fall from #Damascus, allowing #Israeli intelligence to deploy ground capabilities in #Syria.

1:56pm
The Jerusalem Center
1/5 Israeli forces recovered the remains of Sergeant First Class Zvi Feldman

In an unprecedented operation, Israeli forces have recovered the remains of Sergeant First Class Zvi #Feldman, missing since the 1982 Battle of Sultan Yacoub. The complex #Mossad mission was conducted deep within #Syrian territory, 43 years after his disappearance. This follows the successful 2019 recovery of Zachary #Baumel from the same battle.

1:54pm
The Jerusalem Center
A molotov attack on a bus = a “barbecue party”?

That’s what #Palestinian kids are being taught under @UNRWA  — from grade school to graduation. This isn’t education. It’s indoctrination. Marcus Sheff of @IMPACT_SE  breaks it down with @smartinezamir

12:51pm

Close