- As the Trump administration pushes forward with the clause calling for Hamas’s disarmament under the American peace plan, Israeli security officials express deep skepticism about the feasibility of enforcing such a move.
- The failed attempt to disarm Hizbullah in Lebanon serves as a cautionary tale, while Hamas, for its part, is taking advantage of the ceasefire to rebuild its military capabilities and tighten its control over the Gaza Strip, counting on diplomatic procrastination and political backing from Turkey and Qatar.
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, were dispatched by President Trump to Israel to promote the implementation of the American peace plan’s disarmament of Hamas.
Hamas staunchly opposes disarmament, using the ceasefire period to rebuild its military infrastructure and settle scores with armed clans that have resisted its rule and collaborated with Israel.
Senior Israeli security sources in Jerusalem doubt Washington’s ability to enforce the disarmament clause, despite President Trump’s repeated declarations.
They draw parallels to the American failure to disarm Hizbullah in Lebanon. Eight months have passed since the ceasefire agreement was reached there, and neither the U.S. nor Israel has succeeded in implementing U.N. Resolution 1701, which calls for Hizbullah’s disarmament by Lebanon’s president, government, and army.
The Lebanese leadership has also been unable to deliver. Although the Lebanese government approved a military plan to disarm Hizbullah, the status quo on the ground remains unchanged. Hizbullah still holds its weapons and has even begun manufacturing arms independently.
In Gaza, Hamas remains the sovereign authority, and no force within the enclave is capable of stripping it of its weapons.
Trump’s peace plan aspires to achieve Hamas’s disarmament through diplomatic dialogue and pressure from Arab states, notably Qatar and Turkey, the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood axis, who have assured Trump that they can “deliver the goods.”
President Trump has so far partially implemented the first stage of his plan, the release of all living hostages and some of the deceased ones, and now seeks to move on to the second stage, focusing on Hamas’s disarmament, Gaza’s reconstruction and governance in the post-war period, and expanding normalization between Israel and Arab and Muslim countries.
During a recent meeting with Argentine President Javier Milei, Trump stated: “If they [Hamas] do not disarm, we will force them to do so, and they know I mean it.” However, he did not specify how this would be achieved.
Senior diplomatic sources estimate that Trump will avoid deploying American troops and instead rely on Qatar and Turkey’s political leverage over Hamas, while pressing Muslim and non-Muslim states to assemble an international armed force to oversee the disarmament process.
According to senior Israeli defense officials, the likelihood of Hamas being disarmed is extremely low. Several crucial questions remain unanswered:
What will happen if no compromise is reached on the disarmament issue? Will Muslim states, Arab or otherwise, be willing to use force against Hamas to enforce disarmament? Will President Trump give Israel a “green light” to disarm Hizbullah by force?
Security officials believe Hamas will seek to evade the disarmament demand in several ways, preserving its DNA as a “resistance movement.”
Dr. Ahmad Youssef, a senior Hamas official and former adviser to Ismail Haniyeh, wrote in an October 20 article in the east Jerusalem daily Al-Quds that Hamas would not surrender its weapons before arrangements are reached guaranteeing the safety of its leaders and fighters, under a security mechanism supervised by Arab and Islamic states that influenced Hamas to sign the American agreement.
According to Youssef, disarmament will not be an immediate process but rather a complex political and security track that could take considerable time, depending on the seriousness of international efforts, the progress of the peace process, and the emergence of a political solution that eliminates the causes of resistance and opens a horizon of hope for the Palestinian people.
Youssef proposed drawing lessons from Northern Ireland and the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which ended the violence between the Irish Republican Army (IRA) and the British Army. After years of negotiations, a disarmament process was agreed upon in 2005, without specifying whether the weapons were actually handed over.
He also suggested that the Palestinian Authority could be tasked with neutralizing Hamas’s weapons under arrangements that preserve its national dignity, provided Israel moves toward the creation of an independent Palestinian state.
Senior Israeli defense officials foresee several possible scenarios:
Scenario A (the best-case): Hamas will seek a long-term ceasefire—a hudna lasting three to five years—without relinquishing its weapons. In the meantime, it will rebuild its military infrastructure using dual-use materials such as iron, cement, and other supplies entering Gaza for reconstruction.
Scenario B: Hamas might agree, superficially, to hand over its heavy weapons to Egypt for safekeeping while continuing to possess light arms and secretly manufacture new weapons in its tunnels.
On October 25, Khalil al-Hayya, head of Hamas’s negotiating team, stated in an interview with Al Jazeera: “When the Israeli occupation ends, we will transfer our weapons to the Palestinian state.”
President Trump continues to issue confident statements that Hamas will be disarmed, by consent or by force. Yet, according to senior Israeli defense sources, Hamas is counting on prolonged negotiations and attempts to buy time.
With assistance from Qatar and Turkey in dealing with Trump, it is expected that Hamas will find ways to stretch out the disarmament process, creating the appearance of compliance while maintaining its standing in Palestinian society. Once Trump’s term ends, the group will likely resume open military rearmament.
As one senior Israeli security official put it: “Only the IDF can truly disarm Hamas in Gaza, and Hizbullah in Lebanon.”
