Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA)

Recent developments in the Gaza Strip conflict have spurred a significant shift in Saudi Arabia’s approach to a normalization agreement with Israel, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman adopting a more rigid stance.

The conflict prompted a change, with the Biden administration allegedly encouraging Saudi Arabia to raise its demands, particularly regarding Palestinian statehood.

The Saudi leadership views the weakening of Hamas, an affiliate of the Muslim Brotherhood – labeled as a terrorist organization by Saudi Arabia – as a positive outcome of Israel’s actions in Gaza.

Consequently, Saudi Arabia is now leaning towards aligning itself more closely with the Palestinian Authority (PA), a foe of Hamas, anticipating its eventual governance over Gaza and international backing for this transition.

During the Munich Security Conference on February 19, 2024, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan emphasized the PA’s capability. “The Palestinian Authority is capable, with the support of the international community, of controlling the West Bank and Gaza Strip,” the Saudi foreign minister insisted, adding, “This requires a real path to establishing a Palestinian state.”

However, he underscored the necessity of a clear path toward the establishment of a Palestinian state as a precondition for normalization with Israel. “We’ve been clear with our public statements, and we’ve been clear with our American friends that a pathway toward recognition [of Israel] requires two things: It requires an end to the fighting in Gaza and a withdrawal of all Israeli forces, and a Palestinian state. Without that, we’re not even able to consider this issue,” Prince Faisal told France24 in an interview.¹

Bin Farhan also voiced opposition to Israeli plans for the Rafah area. He highlighted the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, stressing the urgent need for a ceasefire and increased humanitarian aid.

No mention of Hamas’s Crimes

Notably absent from bin Farhan’s discourse was any mention of Hamas’s actions, including attacks and the mistreatment of Israeli hostages, indicating Saudi Arabia’s prioritization of Palestinian statehood over engagement with Hamas.

Before the Gaza conflict, Saudi Arabia had engaged in discreet talks with Israel without setting preconditions for normalization. However, the conflict prompted a change, with the Biden administration allegedly encouraging Saudi Arabia to raise its demands, particularly regarding Palestinian statehood.

Furthermore, Saudi Arabia’s suspension of financial aid to the PA due to its corruption reflects a broader insistence on reforms within Palestinian institutions.

The Saudi stance on normalization, including its alignment with the Biden administration on Gaza aid and insistence on Palestinian statehood, presents significant hurdles to immediate progress.

With ongoing IDF operations in Gaza and strategic concerns regarding security zones and settlements, Israel finds Saudi Arabia’s preconditions unacceptable and incompatible with its security interests.

Given the situation’s complexity and the potential for a change in the U.S. administration, Prime Minister Netanyahu may postpone negotiations until after the U.S. presidential elections, anticipating possible shifts in dynamics that could facilitate a more favorable outcome for Israel.

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Notes