Summary
Iran’s political system is built on the principle of velayat-e faqih (rule of the cleric), which places ultimate authority in the hands of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. For decades, he has embodied this role, projecting both political dominance and religious charisma. However, his failing health, coupled with the absence of a clear and capable successor, has left the regime vulnerable at a critical moment of transition.
Despite suffering major military setbacks, strategic losses, and economic collapse from sanctions and mismanagement, the regime remains ideologically driven, with a deep-rooted hostility toward Israel at its core. This animosity is not merely political but framed as a religious and messianic duty. The leadership may even intensify efforts to advance nuclear and ballistic capabilities as a way to preserve legitimacy and instill fear.
The fragile succession process represents the regime’s weakest point: potential new leaders lack Khamenei’s authority and public legitimacy. This creates both risks of brutal repression and opportunities for systemic change. The situation demands a broader strategy that goes beyond monitoring technical nuclear details. External powers must recognize the ideological and structural nature of the challenge, support opposition forces, encourage internal defections, impose targeted sanctions on elites, and prepare a clear framework for the day after the Islamic Republic.
Three Disallowed Goals – A Storm of Fan Protests
During Real Madrid’s match against Mallorca this week, fans witnessed a rare spectacle: three brilliant goals, each successively disallowed by the VAR system. Two of Kylian Mbappé’s goals were ruled offside by mere millimeters, and a third by Arda Güler was cancelled for a handball. Each time the stadium erupted in celebration – only to collapse moments later into bitter disappointment.
The fans fumed: “This is no longer football; it’s a laboratory experiment.” Many argued that while VAR delivers scientific truth, it drains the game of its soul, stripping away emotion and drama.
This is precisely how the West deals with Iran. For decades, the U.S. and Europe have focused on technicalities: centrifuge counts, enrichment percentages, monitoring cameras. Instead of acknowledging that the entire game is rigged – that the regime itself is the problem – they quibble over nuclear “offsides” measured in millimeters.
The West views Tehran through the VAR lens: sensors, inspectors’ reports, temporary agreements. But it misses the bigger picture – velayat-e faqih, the principle that makes Iran a militant theocracy, and the fiery ideology that drives Khamenei: an uncompromising religious war against Zionism, Israel, and the liberal values of the “decadent” West.
Velayat-e Faqih – The Core of the Regime
Velayat-e faqih (“Guardianship of the Jurist”) is the Islamic Republic’s foundation. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini declared that the state holds legitimacy only if it is ruled by a senior cleric in the name of Shiite law. His authority supersedes president, parliament, and judiciary alike.
Since 1989, Ali Khamenei has filled that role, consolidating unmatched power. For over four decades he wielded not only political and military authority, but also charismatic influence that cloaked his rule in an aura of sanctity.
Cracks in the Image – But Not in His Grip
Recent years have delivered heavy blows:
- Military setbacks – Israeli and U.S. strikes exposed air defense weaknesses and destroyed nuclear and missile infrastructure.
- Strategic losses – The assassination of Hizbullah leaders and the fall of Assad’s regime, both pillars of Iran’s regional posture.
- Economic collapse and drought – Crippling sanctions, runaway inflation, water shortages, and agricultural decline – all compounded by corruption and the reckless diversion of resources toward messianic visions.
The regime’s public image is eroding. Yet Khamenei – one of the longest-ruling leaders alive – still prevents outright collapse. But he is fading: ill, paranoid, fearful. Like an “old tree about to fall,” once he does, the entire forest will be laid bare.
Hatred of Zionism – The Ideological Compass
Khamenei’s guiding star has long been his burning hatred of Israel. For decades, he has pushed the most extreme regional line, even erecting in Tehran a “countdown clock” to Israel’s destruction. To him, eradicating Zionism is not merely political – it is a religious, messianic duty.
This is the West’s blind spot: it weighs Iran with a cost-benefit calculator, ignoring the ideological driver. For Khamenei, survival and legitimacy may now depend on escalating – pushing harder toward nuclear capability and ballistic power despite repeated setbacks.
Weak Successors – A Narrow Window
Khamenei has no agreed successor. Several candidates loom, none with his stature:
- Mojtaba Khamenei – his son, close to the Revolutionary Guard, rumored to have been secretly tapped by the Assembly of Experts in November 2024. But he lacks clerical authority, charisma, and public legitimacy.
- Ali Reza Arafi – head of the seminaries in Qom since 2017, shaping the next generation of Shiite clergy. Influential in the religious establishment but not charismatic, and without street power.
- Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei – former intelligence minister, now judiciary chief. A harsh bureaucrat, corrupt, with no religious standing.
- Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf – parliament speaker, ex-Tehran mayor, ex-IRGC commander. Pragmatic yet conservative, with political and military credentials. Popular, but tethered to the Guards.
None can preserve velayat-e faqih in its original form. When the new leader takes power, he will act ruthlessly to consolidate his rule – possibly through brutal repression and external escalation. This transition period is the regime’s most fragile moment.
What the West Must Do – Beyond VAR
It is now clear: cameras, sensors, and reports are not enough. The West must look beyond nuclear “offsides” and confront the core issue: a regime in decline, anchored to a dying leader, ruling over a weary population hungry for change.
The necessary steps to be taken are:
- Military-psychological pressure – Show that the issue is existential, not technical: the regime itself.
- Encourage defections – Offer safe haven and incentives for insiders to dismantle the system from within.
- Support opposition and minorities – Provide funding, technology, and training to groups seeking change.
- Targeted sanctions – Hurt the elite, not the general population.
- Prepare for the day after – Craft a clear alternative for a post-Islamic Republic order.
The 90th Minute
Iran’s regime is at its most fragile point. Khamenei still blocks collapse, but he is waning. The window is narrow: once he dies, successors will scramble violently to re-establish control. That will be the moment of greatest vulnerability – and the moment the West must be ready to act.
Just as Madrid fans cried that VAR strangled football’s soul, Iranians feel their regime has suffocated theirs. But here the stakes are far greater: the fate of an entire nation and region.
A Persian proverb says: “When the sun begins to rise, not even the mountains can block its rays.” The sun over Iran is already rising. The West must now choose: will it keep staring at the sensors, or finally lift its eyes to the light?
FAQ
What is velayat-e faqih and why is it central to Iran’s regime?
Why does the article compare Iran to football’s VAR system?
What role does Israel play in Iran’s ideology?
What challenges does Iran’s leadership face today?
What actions does the article recommend for the West?
- Apply military and psychological pressure on the regime itself.
- Encourage defections among insiders.
- Support opposition groups and minorities with resources.
- Impose targeted sanctions on elites, not the wider population.
- Prepare a clear strategy for a post-Islamic Republic Iran.
