Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA)

Iran is taking advantage of President Biden’s perceived weakness to undermine the anticipated normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi crown prince will likely decide on the normalization agreement with Israel only after the U.S. presidential elections.

Iran is actively attempting to sabotage the normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia through the Houthi rebels.

Iran previously disrupted the normalization efforts through the Hamas “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack on the Israeli communities surrounding Gaza on October 7, 2023.

Now, it is preparing to thwart the possible agreement once again.

Hamas officials state that Iran will not allow any American administration to establish a new moderate axis in the Middle East, which could threaten the Iran-led resistance axis, as President Biden aims to do.

Encouraged by the success of the Hamas attack on Israel and Hizbullah’s assault on northern Israel, Iran’s current mission is to eliminate any possibility of Israel continuing the normalization process with Arab countries.

Threats from Abdelmalek Al-Houthi

Senior Israeli security officials are concerned about Abdelmalek Al-Houthi, the leader of the Houthi rebels in Yemen, an Iranian puppet, who has been warning Saudi Arabia for several weeks not to sign a normalization agreement with Israel, citing it as a “threat to Yemen’s national security.”

Saudi Arabia fears the military power of the Houthi rebels, who have imposed a naval blockade in the Red Sea, purported to be against Israel, hitting over 150 ships with missiles and UAVs and claiming they were headed to Israel.

On September 14, 2019, the vast Saudi oil facilities of the “Aramco” company in the Abqaiq region were paralyzed by an attack by cruise missiles and UAVs, causing significant economic damage. The Houthi rebels boasted of their responsibility. Western intelligence agencies charged the attack came from the south of Iran or Iraq, and “the Houthis are claiming credit for something they did not do.”¹

The attack slashed Saudi Arabia’s oil production capacity by 50%, about 5% of the global supply.

At that time, the Trump administration did not come to Saudi Arabia’s aid.

Saudi Hesitation Amid U.S. Political Uncertainty

Political officials in Jerusalem note that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has recently stopped speaking to the media about normalization with Israel.

Despite American pressure, he has refrained from doing so.

Saudi Arabia is currently in a ceasefire with the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have sent messages warning of the potential consequences of signing a normalization agreement with Israel on the ceasefire agreement.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is concerned about the Biden administration’s perceived weakness in the Middle East.

He also monitors President Biden’s political difficulties in the U.S. election campaign and considers his possible withdrawal from the race.

Additionally, the Israeli government refuses to agree to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state as demanded by Saudi Arabia as part of the normalization agreement.

Moreover, working against a normalization agreement at this time, an all-out military confrontation between Hizbullah and Israel could lead to a regional war.

Given these developments, Saudi officials believe that only a decisive Israeli victory over Hamas in Gaza could encourage Crown Prince Bin Salman to sign a normalization agreement with Israel.

Currently, this is not happening, and the situation on Israel’s northern front against Hizbullah remains uncertain.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has no interest in signing a normalization agreement – which also involves security agreements – with Israel while it appears weak against the pro-Iranian axis.

Such an agreement would be complicated to pass on the Saudi street.

He also fears being portrayed in the Arab world as someone trying to help Israel recover from the events of October 7, 2023.

The current assessment in Israel is that the Saudi crown prince would prefer to wait for the results of the U.S. presidential elections before making a final decision on normalization with Israel.

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Notes