Daily Alert

Iran Exploits Biden’s Weakness to Derail Israel-Saudi Normalization Deal

The instability in the Middle East also deters normalization progress at this stage
Share this
An Iranian cartoon depicting Yemen’s Houthis attacking Saudi Arabia with a drone in the form of a jambiya dagger
An Iranian cartoon depicting Yemen’s Houthis attacking Saudi Arabia with their jambiya dagger in the form of a drone. (Tasnim News)

Table of Contents

Iran is taking advantage of President Biden’s perceived weakness to undermine the anticipated normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi crown prince will likely decide on the normalization agreement with Israel only after the U.S. presidential elections.

Iran is actively attempting to sabotage the normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia through the Houthi rebels.

Iran previously disrupted the normalization efforts through the Hamas “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack on the Israeli communities surrounding Gaza on October 7, 2023.

Now, it is preparing to thwart the possible agreement once again.

Hamas officials state that Iran will not allow any American administration to establish a new moderate axis in the Middle East, which could threaten the Iran-led resistance axis, as President Biden aims to do.

Encouraged by the success of the Hamas attack on Israel and Hizbullah’s assault on northern Israel, Iran’s current mission is to eliminate any possibility of Israel continuing the normalization process with Arab countries.

Threats from Abdelmalek Al-Houthi

Senior Israeli security officials are concerned about Abdelmalek Al-Houthi, the leader of the Houthi rebels in Yemen, an Iranian puppet, who has been warning Saudi Arabia for several weeks not to sign a normalization agreement with Israel, citing it as a “threat to Yemen’s national security.”

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Mohammed Abdul-Salam, spokesman for the Yemen Houthis, during their meeting at his residence in Tehran, Iran, August 13, 2019
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right, and Mohammed Abdul-Salam, spokesman for the Yemen Houthis, during their meeting at his residence in Tehran, Iran, August 13, 2019. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader)

Saudi Arabia fears the military power of the Houthi rebels, who have imposed a naval blockade in the Red Sea, purported to be against Israel, hitting over 150 ships with missiles and UAVs and claiming they were headed to Israel.

On September 14, 2019, the vast Saudi oil facilities of the “Aramco” company in the Abqaiq region were paralyzed by an attack by cruise missiles and UAVs, causing significant economic damage. The Houthi rebels boasted of their responsibility. Western intelligence agencies charged the attack came from the south of Iran or Iraq, and “the Houthis are claiming credit for something they did not do.”1

The attack slashed Saudi Arabia’s oil production capacity by 50%, about 5% of the global supply.

damage to oil/gas Saudi Aramco infrastructure at Abqaiq
A satellite image showing damage to oil/gas Saudi Aramco infrastructure at Abqaiq, in Saudi Arabia in this handout picture released by the U.S. Government, September 15, 2019
Damage at a Saudi oil facility at Abqaiq in 2019, caused by an Iranian drone attack
Damage at a Saudi oil facility at Abqaiq in 2019, caused by an Iranian drone attack.

At that time, the Trump administration did not come to Saudi Arabia’s aid.

Saudi Hesitation Amid U.S. Political Uncertainty

Political officials in Jerusalem note that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has recently stopped speaking to the media about normalization with Israel.

Despite American pressure, he has refrained from doing so.

Saudi Arabia is currently in a ceasefire with the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have sent messages warning of the potential consequences of signing a normalization agreement with Israel on the ceasefire agreement.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is concerned about the Biden administration’s perceived weakness in the Middle East.

He also monitors President Biden’s political difficulties in the U.S. election campaign and considers his possible withdrawal from the race.

Additionally, the Israeli government refuses to agree to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state as demanded by Saudi Arabia as part of the normalization agreement.

Moreover, working against a normalization agreement at this time, an all-out military confrontation between Hizbullah and Israel could lead to a regional war.

Given these developments, Saudi officials believe that only a decisive Israeli victory over Hamas in Gaza could encourage Crown Prince Bin Salman to sign a normalization agreement with Israel.

Currently, this is not happening, and the situation on Israel’s northern front against Hizbullah remains uncertain.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has no interest in signing a normalization agreement – which also involves security agreements – with Israel while it appears weak against the pro-Iranian axis.

Such an agreement would be complicated to pass on the Saudi street.

He also fears being portrayed in the Arab world as someone trying to help Israel recover from the events of October 7, 2023.

The current assessment in Israel is that the Saudi crown prince would prefer to wait for the results of the U.S. presidential elections before making a final decision on normalization with Israel.

* * *

Notes

  1. https://www.israelhayom.com/2019/09/16/trump-us-locked-and-loaded-for-response-to-attack-on-saudis/↩︎

Yoni Ben Menachem

Yoni Ben Menachem, a veteran Arab affairs and diplomatic commentator for Israel Radio and Television, is a senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Center. He served as Director General and Chief Editor of the Israel Broadcasting Authority.
Share this

Subscribe to Daily Alert

The Daily Alert – Israel news digest appears every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

Related Items

Stay Informed, Always

Get the latest news, insights, and updates directly in your inbox—be the first to know!

Subscribe to Jerusalem Issue Briefs
The Daily Alert – Israel news digest appears every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday.







Notifications

The Jerusalem Center
What makes a child believe killing a #Jew is justified?

In PA textbooks, Jews are called liars and frauds; their fate: elimination. This is #indoctrination—not #education. But change is happening. On East to West, @IMPACT_SE CEO Marcus Sheff exposes how #UNRWA-funded schools are fueling extremism—and what real reform looks like.  Listen now on Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/2JHqh973U  Watch on YouTube: youtu.be/8OkJTGNfVUc

11:43am
The Jerusalem Center
Highlights from the @Jerusalem_Post Annual Conference in NYC:

Dr. @Dan_Diker, President of the JCFA: “October 7 wasn’t just an attack on Israel — it was a blow to the U.S. on Israeli soil. It demands moral clarity and a united front between Israel and the U.S. to defeat jihadist terror.”

2:20pm
The Jerusalem Center
@XAVIAERD says it like it is

Well, @XAVIAERD says it like it is: If you’re part of “#Queers for #Palestine,” he’ll pay for your flight to #Gaza. Go see for yourself how they treat LGBTQ+ people over there. Don’t miss this bold take on the Israel-Hamas war and the woke right.

2:32pm
The Jerusalem Center
“This isn’t Israel vs. Hamas — it’s the frontline of the free world.”

“This isn’t Israel vs. Hamas — it’s the frontline of the free world.” On Our Middle East by @JNS_org, @Dan_Diker@KhaledAbuToameh (JCFA/@GatestoneInst) break it down: If Hamas isn’t crushed, Iran wins. The jihadis—from #Gaza to your campus—get the green light. Diker: “This war is for the West.” No fluff. No filters. Just raw insight from two insiders who actually know what’s going on.  Watch: youtu.be/4Aq_zcbb4Yo

2:15pm
The Jerusalem Center
5/5 Lt. Col. Kalo on East to West with @smartinezamir:

“This operation showcases Israel’s strategic intelligence superiority both regionally and globally. It demonstrates the moral commitment to recovered soldiers and also strengthens Israel’s position with allies.” youtube.com/watch?v=nIvNNi

2:07pm
The Jerusalem Center
4/5 The operation built on intelligence gathered during the 2019 #Baumel recovery

#Mossad agents operated under cover in #Syria for years, visiting a graveyard multiple times under fire to collect remains for DNA matching. The intelligence community’s evolution combines technology, big data analysis, and human intelligence capabilities.

2:02pm
The Jerusalem Center
3/5 This recovery coincided with the release of Israeli hostage Edan Alexander

This recovery coincided with the release of Israeli hostage Edan Alexander from #Hamas in #Gaza, significantly boosting national morale amid an ongoing conflict now stretching over 18 months. The dual successes demonstrate #Israel‘s unwavering commitment to bringing all soldiers home.

1:58pm
The Jerusalem Center
2/5 The operation used the power vacuum following #Assad’s fall from #Damascus

Lt. Col. Avi Kalo, former head of IDF Prisoners & Missing Persons Division, calls it “an outstanding event that brings hope and new spirit to the people of Israel.” The operation utilized the power vacuum following #Assad‘s fall from #Damascus, allowing #Israeli intelligence to deploy ground capabilities in #Syria.

1:56pm
The Jerusalem Center
1/5 Israeli forces recovered the remains of Sergeant First Class Zvi Feldman

In an unprecedented operation, Israeli forces have recovered the remains of Sergeant First Class Zvi #Feldman, missing since the 1982 Battle of Sultan Yacoub. The complex #Mossad mission was conducted deep within #Syrian territory, 43 years after his disappearance. This follows the successful 2019 recovery of Zachary #Baumel from the same battle.

1:54pm
The Jerusalem Center
A molotov attack on a bus = a “barbecue party”?

That’s what #Palestinian kids are being taught under @UNRWA  — from grade school to graduation. This isn’t education. It’s indoctrination. Marcus Sheff of @IMPACT_SE  breaks it down with @smartinezamir

12:51pm

Close