Homeland Security Portal Area Studies: Iran – Egypt – Syria Area Studies: IranIran’s Fortunes Rising in a Middle East Vacuum Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, March 19, 2014 Iran is implementing a plan to expand its influence over the Middle Eastern region. As a primary sponsor of Hizbullah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), the “long arm” of Iranian influence may be attempting to establish itself as a regional power player, in the wake of the U.S.’ declining prestige. Read More »
How Nuclear Talks Help Iran Dominate the Middle East Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, February 25, 2014 Iran seeks symmetry with the U.S. through projecting its power throughout the region. With the loosening of sanctions, Iran finds itself under less economic pressure, allowing it to fill in the gaps in its nuclear program, as well as intensify its foreign policy objectives. The nuclear talks allow Iran to continue working towards its strategic goals. Read More »
The Internal Iranian Struggle in the Aftermath of the Geneva Nuclear Agreement Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, January 14, 2014 The Geneva nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 has become a source of tension in Iran between the conservatives and Revolutionary Guard on one side, and President Hassan Rouhani, the nuclear negotiating team, and those considered the reformist camp on the other. The regime’s security establishment continues a crackdown on the opposition and social networks in an effort to protect Iran’s revolutionary Islamic nature. The intensity of public support for Rouhani is of no significance when it comes to Iran’s nuclear progress, nor is it likely to have substantial implications for the state of civil society and human rights in Iran. Read More »
Conflicting Expectations from the Geneva Document between the P5+1 and Iran Dore Gold, December 11, 2013 Questions of interpretation have arisen from both sides about the Geneva document’s obligations to the relevant parties. Parties disagree on what the document means for nuclear breakout, U.S.-imposed sanctions on Iran, and uranium enrichment Read More »
Iran Looks Beyond the Nuclear Talks Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, November 26, 2013 Khamenei underlines the decline in American power and influence (even among its friends) and the economic problems afflicting it, contrasting this with Iran’s rising power compared to the past. Iran does not come to the nuclear negotiations out of weakness, but, indeed, from a position of strength, and rather than having anything to lose from the talks, it only stands to gain from them, as it did in the interim agreement. Iran’s considerations in coming to the negotiating table are its assessment of America’s declining regional and international status and its own expanding reach. Read More »
The Emerging Geneva Agreement with Iran Dore Gold, November 12, 2013 Eliminating Iran’s 20-percent-enriched uranium, but allowing the Iranians to continue to produce 3.5-percent-enriched uranium is an unacceptable option if the goal of the West is to prevent Iran from advancing a nuclear weapon. Allowing Iran to enrich to the 3.5-percent level will not address the threat emanating from Iran’s latest generation of faster centrifuges and the scenario of a fast dash by Iran to weapons-grade uranium, known as “nuclear break-out.” Read More »
Iran vs. the West: Endgame? Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, October 15, 2013 Despite direct negotiations with the United States, Iran has no intention of halting their nuclear enrichment program. Iran could be within a few months of building a bomb. Read More »
Rowhani’s and Jalili’s Election Propaganda Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, June 12, 2013 Election Propaganda from Jalili and Rowhani present the two sides of Iran’s nuclear negotiating tactics. The “principalist” [hard-line] candidates, represented by Jalili, take a dogmatic, uncompromising line on Iran’s foreign relations and its stance on the nuclear issue. The “pragmatic” candidates, represented by Rowhani, show a readiness to open a new chapter in Iran’s dealings with the world and conduct the nuclear talks in a calmer atmosphere. Read More »
Iran Fears Growing Israel-Azerbaijan Cooperation Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, May 17, 2013 Through a mutual distrust of Iranian intentions, Israel and Azerbaijan have enjoyed a closer relationship. Iran is concerned by this tightening of Israeli/Azerbaijani relations, as Azerbaijan could be used for a potential strike against Iran’s nuclear sites. Iran has also sponsored a great number of terrorist cells in Azerbaijan, including factions of Lebanese Hizbullah, and has been accused of attempting to sway Azerbaijan’s political structure. Read More »
Understanding the Current State of the Iranian Nuclear Challenge Dore Gold, March 24, 2013 Over the last decade, a clear international consensus has slowly emerged that Iran was not just pursuing a civilian nuclear program, but rather was seeking nuclear weapons. The IAEA has raised concerns about the possible existence of certain areas of military research in the Iranian nuclear program, which, when coupled with Iran’s expansionist goals, presents a challenge to regional stability. Negotiations and proposals to protect the International Community from Iranian nuclear weapons must take into account all aspects of Iranian nuclear research. Read More »
The Iranian Role in the 2012 Gaza Conflict Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, December 2, 2012 Iran’s supply of rockets to the Palestinians shows a lack of fear of Israel and the Western powers. The rift between Sunnis and Shia that is evident in various Middle Eastern conflicts makes clear that Iran will confront Sunni states like Egypt and Turkey over issues of regional hegemony and influence. These changes are becoming clear not only in actions in Gaza, but in the Syrian conflict as well. Read More »
The Role of Iranian Security Forces in Syria Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, June 20, 2012 Iran views the confrontation in Syria as a critical battleground with the West regarding the reshaping of the Middle East and its own role in the region as a key, vital and influential player. Hizbullah is currently serving under Iran’s command as a part of Assad’s forces, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have been involved in Syrian events. Iran’s aid to Assad illustrates Iran’s goal of becoming a power capable of countering the West’s influence. Read More »
Iran, Hizbullah, Hamas and the Global Jihad: A New Conflict Paradigm for the West Dore Gold, December 27, 2011 Iran’s primary vulnerability is the economic sphere. Although half of the Iranian government’s revenues come from the export of crude oil, without foreign investment, production of crude oil will falter. In order to convince Iran to give up the nuclear program, the U.S. and its allies must exploit their economic leverage, backed up by a credible threat of military force against the nuclear program and other targets in Iran as necessary. Read More »
Iran’s Race for Regional Supremacy: Strategic Implications for the Middle East September 21, 2011 Iran has accelerated its quest for regional supremacy through its mobilization of both Shiite and Sunni terror surrogates, including Hizbullah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq and in the Gulf, the Taliban in Afghanistan, and Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Al Aksa Martyrs’ Brigades in the Palestinian territories. These actions could destabilize the entire region, creating a threat to global security. Read More »
The Rise of Nuclear Iran: How Tehran Defies the West Dore Gold, June 15, 2011 In the West, liberal politicians and pundits are calling for renewed diplomatic engagement with Iran, convinced that Tehran will respond to reason and halt its nuclear weapons program. Yet, countries have repeatedly tried diplomatic talks and utterly failed. Gold examines these past failures, showing how Iran employed strategic deception and delay tactics to hide its intentions from the West. He argues that Western policymakers underestimate Iran s hostility toward us and explains why diplomacy will continue to backfire, no matter which party or president is in power. Read More »
Can Cold War Deterrence Apply to a Nuclear Iran? Shmuel Bar, May 20, 2011 The Obama Administration’s policy of Cold War-style deterrence with regards to Iran fails to take into account various issues. The ideology of the Iranian leadership, the threat of a polynuclear Middle East, and the idealization of martyrdom are all issues which do not fit into a model of cold war style deterrence. Furthermore, should nuclear weapons become a reality in the region; it is possible that they may filter down to quasi-states, terrorist organizations, and rival ethnic groups. Read More »
The Sources of Iranian Negotiating Behavior Harold Rhode, August 26, 2010 This report identifies patterns of Iranian culture that are relevant to Western policymakers which have been ignored for decades. Understanding of these cues can better enable the West to negotiate with Iran regarding their nuclear weapons programs, and to convince the Iranian population to liberate themselves. Read More »
Halting Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program: Iranian Vulnerabilities and Western Policy Options Yossi Kuperwasser, July 8, 2007 Iran’s primary vulnerability is the economic sphere. Although half of the Iranian government’s revenues come from the export of crude oil, without foreign investment, production of crude oil will falter. In order to convince Iran to give up the nuclear program, the U.S. and its allies must exploit their economic leverage, backed up by a credible threat of military force against the nuclear program and other targets in Iran as necessary.
Iran: From Regional Challenge to Global Threat Jerusalem Center, October 4, 2012 This anthology of 31 recent studies by eleven leading security and diplomatic experts outlines the Iranian threat to Israel, the Middle East region, and the West. Included are discussions of Iran’s progress of developing nuclear weapons, sponsorship of terrorism, and use of resources to drive Western policies. Read More »
Area Studies: EgyptEgyptian Field Marshal Abd El-Fattah El-Sisi: A Profile Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, February 27, 2014 A profile of the popular Egyptian Commander in Chief. Read More »
Sisi Fever: Will the General be the Next President of Egypt? Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, October 29, 2013 Observers of the Egyptian scene are repeatedly stressing the change in the mood of the Egyptians towards the United States, from friendship and admiration to open hostility. In turn, the U.S. administration is questioning his legitimacy and presenting him as the leader of a coup and a usurper of power. This creates an opening for a possible Russian comeback in Egypt and through it to a reinforced Russian position in the region. Read More »
Egypt after Morsi: The Defeat of Political Islam? Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, July 12, 2013 The Muslim Brotherhood’s 80-year dream to take over Egypt ended in a fiasco, barely one year after one of its own was democratically elected to the office of President of Egypt. The Brotherhood’s loss sends a message that political Islam can be subdued by moderate and liberal forces, providing hope to those struggling against Jihadist and MB-associated groups. The new regime in Egypt allows Israel maintain the status quo with regards to the Egyptian/Israeli Peace Treaty. Read More »
Is Egypt Heading toward a Military Regime? Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, May 20, 2013 After President Mohamed Morsi’s “victory” over the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) in August 2012, the Muslim Brotherhood and Morsi himself began signaling their intention to turn Egypt into an Islamic state, arousing the fears of liberals and religious minorities. The opposition turned hostile to the regime and began castigating it, exploiting the newly acquired freedom of the press. Today, Egypt is on the verge of chaos. As Morsi’s government fails to achieve true democracy, respect human rights, restore security, or improve economic welfare, an increasing number of people are calling on the army to return to the political scene as Morsi’s only possible replacement. Read More »
Egypt’s Shiite Minority: between the Egyptian Hammer and the Iranian Anvil Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, September 23, 2012 Since the Egyptian Revolution, many of Egypt’s 2.2 million Shiites began demanding rights after the repression of the Mubarak era. However, these requests have been met with threats from hardline Salafi groups. The election of Mohammad Morsi radicalized the issue. In response, Iran has distanced itself from Egyptian Shiites. However, with the growing sectarian divide between Sunni and Shia, this could easily strain relations between Egypt and Iran and ignite a regional flashpoint. Read More »
Area Studies: SyriaThe Syrian Constellation before the Geneva 2 Peace Talks Pinhas Inbari, January 22, 2014 Presents opinions of the Syrian Opposition regarding the potential outcomes of the Geneva 2 conference. Fears include U.S./Russian support for al-Assad, as opposed to al-Qaeda, in addition to Iran’s participation in the conference. Read More »
What Might Be Expected in Monitoring Syria: Lessons from Past Middle East Weapons Inspections Dore Gold, September 17, 2013 In light of the Russian/US agreement to eliminate Syria’s chemical weapons, the world’s accumulated hands-on experience in Middle Eastern arms control in Iraq, Iran, and Libya should be remembered. Read More »
The Role of Iranian Security Forces in Syria Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, June 20, 2012 Iran views the confrontation in Syria as a critical battleground with the West regarding the reshaping of the Middle East and its own role in the region as a key, vital and influential player. Hizbullah is currently serving under Iran’s command as a part of Assad’s forces, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have been involved in Syrian events. Iran’s aid to Assad illustrates Iran’s goal of becoming a power capable of countering the West’s influence. Read More »
TerrorismIran’s Fortunes Rising in a Middle East Vacuum Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, March 19, 2014 Iran is implementing a plan to expand its influence over the Middle Eastern region. As a primary sponsor of Hizbullah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), the “long arm” of Iranian influence may be attempting to establish itself as a regional power player, in the wake of the U.S.’ declining prestige. Read More »
After the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Is Hamas in Gaza Next in Line? Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, October 1, 2013 With the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egyptian security forces take aim at the Palestinian offshoot of the Brotherhood, Hamas. A U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organization, Hamas has recently lost many of its regional allies. With their supply routes in danger, Hamas leaders are scrambling for ways to stay alive. Read More »
Have the Fundamentals of Israel’s Strategic Environment Inextricably Changed? Dore Gold, August 22, 2013 There is a view that developments since the advent of the Arab Spring have completely altered the way Israel should look at its national security needs for many decades to come. However, while many of the essential facts of Israeli security remain the same, the changes in neighboring and hostile regimes, such as power vacuums being filled by terrorist organizations and additional weaponry being smuggled into conflict zones, result in a need for re-evaluation of Israeli strategy. Read More »
International Nongovernmental Organizations: “Global Conscience” or Powerful Political Actors? Dr. Rephael Ben-Ari, July 15, 2013 Nearly forty thousand INGOs are active in the world today. Experts point to the possibility that some INGOs are being widely exploited by terrorist networks as easy points of infiltration into the civic space. Some are accused of not denouncing violence, or even of supporting terrorism. It must therefore be realized that INGOs can potentially facilitate international cooperation and the rule of law, but they can also obstruct them. Read More »
Egypt after Morsi: The Defeat of Political Islam? Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, July 12, 2013 The Muslim Brotherhood’s 80-year dream to take over Egypt ended in a fiasco, barely one year after one of its own was democratically elected to the office of President of Egypt. The Brotherhood’s loss sends a message that political Islam can be subdued by moderate and liberal forces, providing hope to those struggling against Jihadist and MB-associated groups. The new regime in Egypt allows Israel maintain the status quo with regards to the Egyptian/Israeli Peace Treaty. Read More »
Changing Forms of Incitement to Terror and Violence: Amb. Alan Baker, November 14, 2012 The most neglected yet critical component of international terror is the element of incitement. Incitement is the medium through which the ideology of terror actually materializes into the act of terror itself. This volume presents insights of experts regarding incitement, as well as a Draft International Convention to Combat Incitement to Terror and Violence intended for presentation to the Secretary-General of the United Nations. Read More »
Draft International Convention for the Prevention of Incitement to Terror Amb. Alan Baker, July 12, 2012 The draft international convention proposed in this paper represents an effort to place before the international community a draft comprehensive instrument that attempts to address the issue of incitement and to criminalize it in international law. Read More »
Iran, Hizbullah, Hamas and the Global Jihad: A New Conflict Paradigm for the West Dore Gold, December 27, 2011 Iran’s primary vulnerability is the economic sphere. Although half of the Iranian government’s revenues come from the export of crude oil, without foreign investment, production of crude oil will falter. In order to convince Iran to give up the nuclear program, the U.S. and its allies must exploit their economic leverage, backed up by a credible threat of military force against the nuclear program and other targets in Iran as necessary. Read More »
Iran’s Race for Regional Supremacy: Strategic Implications for the Middle East September 21, 2011 Iran has accelerated its quest for regional supremacy through its mobilization of both Shiite and Sunni terror surrogates, including Hizbullah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq and in the Gulf, the Taliban in Afghanistan, and Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Al Aksa Martyrs’ Brigades in the Palestinian territories. These actions could destabilize the entire region, creating a threat to global security. Read More »
Hatred’s Kingdom: How Saudi Arabia Supports the New Global Terrorism Dore Gold, June 15, 2011 Saudi Arabia’s support for terrorism is examined in this book. The Saudi kingdom has supplied the radical ideology that compels terrorist action, as well as providing terrorists with manpower and money. Read More »
Conference: Hamas the Gaza War and Accountability under International Law June 18, 2009 Hamas failed in its duty to serve its citizens by developing the economy and society. Instead, Hamas built an arsenal of weapons and engaged in terror attacks against the Israeli state, forcing Israel to engage in a defensive operation. The goal of this conference is to contribute to clarifying the legal challenges to fighting terrorist organizations like Hamas, as well as serving as a starting point for a dialogue between Israel and Germany about how to combat terror groups and to adhere to international standards. Read More »
Talking to Terrorists: The Myths, Misconceptions and Misapplication of the Northern Ireland Peace Process John Bew, July 17, 2008 Critiques the strategy of negotiating with terrorist groups, using the Northern Ireland peace process as a model. Read More »
Hizballah’s Rocket Campaign Against Northern Israel: Dr. Uzi Rubin, August 31, 2006 From July 13 to August 13, the Israel Police reported 4,228 rocket impacts inside Israel from rockets fired by Hizballah. No geographical area in the world has sustained such a large quantity of rocket strikes since the Iran-Iraq war in the early 1980s.One-fourth of the rockets that landed within Israel landed within built-up areas. Israel suffered great numbers of fatalities and injuries, as well as extensive damage to infrastructure. This article discusses the challenge to national security posed by this type of weapon, and identifies areas where defense may be improved. Read More »
Nuclear and Non-Conventional WeaponsHow Nuclear Talks Help Iran Dominate the Middle East Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, February 25, 2014 The nuclear talks are creating an atmosphere where the economic pressure will subside as Iran gains time to fill in the missing pieces of its nuclear program. Iran’s foreign policy is gaining momentum as Gulf States are persuaded to align with Iran. Ongoing negotiations with the United States are proceeding at a relaxed pace that allows Iran to continue working towards its strategic goals. Read More »
The Internal Iranian Struggle in the Aftermath of the Geneva Nuclear Agreement Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, January 14, 2014 The Geneva nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 has become a source of tension in Iran between the conservatives and Revolutionary Guard on one side, and President Hassan Rouhani, the nuclear negotiating team, and those considered the reformist camp on the other. The regime’s security establishment continues a crackdown on the opposition and social networks in an effort to protect Iran’s revolutionary Islamic nature. The intensity of public support for Rouhani is of no significance when it comes to Iran’s nuclear progress, nor is it likely to have substantial implications for the state of civil society and human rights in Iran. Read More »
Conflicting Expectations from the Geneva Document between the P5+1 and Iran Dore Gold, December 11, 2013 Questions of interpretation have arisen from both sides about the Geneva document’s obligations to the relevant parties. Parties disagree on what the document means for nuclear breakout, U.S.-imposed sanctions on Iran, and uranium enrichment. Read More »
The Emerging Geneva Agreement with Iran Dore Gold, November 12, 2013 Khamenei underlines the decline in American power and influence (even among its friends) and the economic problems afflicting it, contrasting this with Iran’s rising power compared to the past. Iran does not come to the nuclear negotiations out of weakness, but, indeed, from a position of strength, and rather than having anything to lose from the talks, it only stands to gain from them, as it did in the interim agreement. Iran’s considerations in coming to the negotiating table are its assessment of America’s declining regional and international status and its own expanding reach. Read More »
Iran vs. the West: Endgame? Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, October 15, 2013 Despite direct negotiations with the United States, Iran has no intention of halting their nuclear enrichment program. Iran could be within a few months of building a bomb. Read More »
What Might Be Expected in Monitoring Syria: Lessons from Past Middle East Weapons Inspections Dore Gold, September 17, 2013 In light of the Russian/US agreement to eliminate Syria’s chemical weapons, the world’s accumulated hands-on experience in Middle Eastern arms control in Iraq, Iran, and Libya should be remembered. Read More »
Understanding the Current State of the Iranian Nuclear Challenge Dore Gold, March 24, 2013 Over the last decade, a clear international consensus has slowly emerged that Iran was not just pursuing a civilian nuclear program, but rather was seeking nuclear weapons. The IAEA has raised concerns about the possible existence of certain areas of military research in the Iranian nuclear program, which, when coupled with Iran’s expansionist goals, presents a challenge to regional stability. Negotiations and proposals to protect the International Community from Iranian nuclear weapons must take into account all aspects of Iranian nuclear research. Read More »
The Rise of Nuclear Iran: How Tehran Defies the West Dore Gold, June 15, 2011 In the West, liberal politicians and pundits are calling for renewed diplomatic engagement with Iran, convinced that Tehran will respond to reason and halt its nuclear weapons program. Yet, countries have repeatedly tried diplomatic talks and utterly failed. Gold examines these past failures, showing how Iran employed strategic deception and delay tactics to hide its intentions from the West. He argues that Western policymakers underestimate Iran s hostility toward us and explains why diplomacy will continue to backfire, no matter which party or president is in power. Read More »
Can Cold War Deterrence Apply to a Nuclear Iran? Shmuel Bar, May 20, 2011 The Obama Administration’s policy of Cold War-style deterrence with regards to Iran fails to take into account various issues. The ideology of the Iranian leadership, the threat of a polynuclear Middle East, and the idealization of martyrdom are all issues which do not fit into a model of cold war style deterrence. Furthermore, should nuclear weapons become a reality in the region; it is possible that they may filter down to quasi-states, terrorist organizations, and rival ethnic groups. Read More »
Halting Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program: Iranian Vulnerabilities and Western Policy Options Yossi Kuperwasser, July 8, 2007 Iran’s primary vulnerability is the economic sphere. Although half of the Iranian government’s revenues come from the export of crude oil, without foreign investment, production of crude oil will falter. In order to convince Iran to give up the nuclear program, the U.S. and its allies must exploit their economic leverage, backed up by a credible threat of military force against the nuclear program and other targets in Iran as necessary. Read More »
Hizballah’s Rocket Campaign Against Northern Israel: Dr. Uzi Rubin, August 31, 2006 From July 13 to August 13, the Israel Police reported 4,228 rocket impacts inside Israel from rockets fired by Hizballah. No geographical area in the world has sustained such a large quantity of rocket strikes since the Iran-Iraq war in the early 1980s.One-fourth of the rockets that landed within Israel landed within built-up areas. Israel suffered great numbers of fatalities and injuries, as well as extensive damage to infrastructure. This article discusses the challenge to national security posed by this type of weapon, and identifies areas where defense may be improved. Read More »
Israeli Strategy and SecurityAfter the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Is Hamas in Gaza Next in Line? Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, October 1, 2013 With the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egyptian security forces take aim at the Palestinian offshoot of the Brotherhood, Hamas. A U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organization, Hamas has recently lost many of its regional allies. With their supply routes in danger, Hamas leaders are scrambling for ways to stay alive. Read More »
Have the Fundamentals of Israel’s Strategic Environment Inextricably Changed? Dore Gold, August 22, 2013 There is a view that developments since the advent of the Arab Spring have completely altered the way Israel should look at its national security needs for many decades to come. However, while many of the essential facts of Israeli security remain the same, the changes in neighboring and hostile regimes, such as power vacuums being filled by terrorist organizations and additional weaponry being smuggled into conflict zones, result in a need for re-evaluation of Israeli strategy. Read More »
Egypt after Morsi: The Defeat of Political Islam? Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, July 12, 2013 The Muslim Brotherhood’s 80-year dream to take over Egypt ended in a fiasco, barely one year after one of its own was democratically elected to the office of President of Egypt. The Brotherhood’s loss sends a message that political Islam can be subdued by moderate and liberal forces, providing hope to those struggling against Jihadist and MB-associated groups. The new regime in Egypt allows Israel maintain the status quo with regards to the Egyptian/Israeli Peace Treaty. Read More »
Strategic Shifts in the Middle East Dr. Yuval Steinitz, July 1, 2013 Various regional and strategic issues represent threats and concerns to the State of Israel, including peace negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, Israeli policy towards Syria, and Israeli opinion regarding the threat of a nuclear Iran. Read More »
Iran Fears Growing Israel-Azerbaijan Cooperation Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, May 17, 2013 Through a mutual distrust of Iranian intentions, Israel and Azerbaijan have enjoyed a closer relationship. Iran is concerned by this tightening of Israeli/Azerbaijani relations, as Azerbaijan could be used for a potential strike against Iran’s nuclear sites. Iran has also sponsored a great number of terrorist cells in Azerbaijan, including factions of Lebanese Hizbullah, and has been accused of attempting to sway Azerbaijan’s political structure. Read More »
What Israel Has Learned about Security: November 1, 2012 Topics covered in this volume include Israel’s experience in counterinsurgency warfare, the effectiveness of security barriers, predicting the rise of Hamas, lessons of the Second Lebanon War of 2006, and the possibility of security arrangements for Israel in the Golan Heights. Read More »
Israel’s Right to Self-Defense: International Law and Gaza November 1, 2012 This volume provides a review of Israel’s unprecedented and careful consideration of questions of international law when forced to go to war to defend its civilian population from attack, with a particular focus on the Gaza war of 2008-2009. The broad questions discussed include the law of armed conflict, proportionality, asymmetric conflicts, self-defense, accountability, and “lawfare.” Read More »
Israel’s Critical Security Requirements for Defensible Borders December 28, 2011 Outline of basic principles of a defense policy for Israel based on defensible borders. Read More »
Turkey, the Global Muslim Brotherhood, and the Gaza Flotilla Steven G. Merley, November 30, 2011 This report resents the results of an investigation into the role played by the Global Muslim Brotherhood and its Turkish allies in the May 2010 Gaza Flotilla which involved a violent altercation between passengers on one of the ships and Israeli naval forces. Read More »
Winning Counterinsurgency War: The Israeli Experience Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, August 23, 2010 Contrary to popular belief, conventional armies can indeed defeat terrorist insurgencies. This study will detail the six basic conditions which, if met, enable an army to fight and win the war against terrorism, among which are control of the ground where the insurgency is being waged, acquiring relevant intelligence for operations against the terrorists themselves, and isolating the insurgency from crossborder reinforcement with manpower or material. Read More »
Defensible Borders on the Golan Heights Maj.-Gen. (Res.) Giora Eiland, August 27, 2009 Addresses Israel’s Security Strategy with regards to the Golan Heights area, particularly in light of the threat from Hizbullah and war with Syria Read More »
Regional StabilityIran’s Fortunes Rising in a Middle East Vacuum Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, March 19, 2014 Iran is implementing a plan to expand its influence over the Middle Eastern region. As a primary sponsor of Hizbullah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), the “long arm” of Iranian influence may be attempting to establish itself as a regional power player, in the wake of the U.S.’ declining prestige. Read More »
How Nuclear Talks Help Iran Dominate the Middle East Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, February 25, 2014 Iran seeks symmetry with the U.S. through projecting its power throughout the region. With the loosening of sanctions, Iran finds itself under less economic pressure, allowing it to fill in the gaps in its nuclear program, as well as intensify its foreign policy objectives. The nuclear talks allow Iran to continue working towards its strategic goals. Read More »
Have the Fundamentals of Israel’s Strategic Environment Inextricably Changed? Dore Gold, August 22, 2013 There is a view that developments since the advent of the Arab Spring have completely altered the way Israel should look at its national security needs for many decades to come. However, while many of the essential facts of Israeli security remain the same, the changes in neighboring and hostile regimes, such as power vacuums being filled by terrorist organizations and additional weaponry being smuggled into conflict zones, result in a need for re-evaluation of Israeli strategy. Read More »
The Kurdish Awakening in Syria: Could It Lead to Regional War? Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, August 15, 2013 Regional stability may be threatened by the rise of independent Kurdish populations in the Middle East. A “Greater Kurdistan” is no longer a remote possibility. This reality poses challenges for all of the states with large Kurdish populations: Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran. Read More »
Strategic Shifts in the Middle East Dr. Yuval Steinitz, July 1, 2013 Various regional and strategic issues represent threats and concerns to the State of Israel, including peace negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, Israeli policy towards Syria, and Israeli opinion regarding the threat of a nuclear Iran. Read More »
The Iranian Role in the 2012 Gaza Conflict Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, December 2, 2012 Iran’s supply of rockets to the Palestinians shows a lack of fear of Israel and the Western powers. The rift between Sunnis and Shia that is evident in various Middle Eastern conflicts makes clear that Iran will confront Sunni states like Egypt and Turkey over issues of regional hegemony and influence. These changes are becoming clear not only in actions in Gaza, but in the Syrian conflict as well. Read More »
The Future of Kurdistan: Between Turkey, the Iraq War, and the Syrian Revolt Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, August 30, 2012 For the first time in modern Kurdish history, an exclusively Kurdish-controlled enclave has developed on the border with Kurdish areas of Turkey. The Free Kurdish Army, responsible for claiming this land, is continuing their mission to gain control of Kurdish cities in Syria. With these new developments, the emergence of a “Greater Kurdistan” is no longer a remote possibility. This area is a potential land bridge for many of the conflicts in the region; therefore control of this land is important to many of the powers currently embroiled in regional conflicts. Kurdistan has the potential to become a new flashpoint in the Middle East. This report provides an overview of the Kurds and Kurdistan. Read More »
The Role of Iranian Security Forces in Syria Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, June 20, 2012 Iran views the confrontation in Syria as a critical battleground with the West regarding the reshaping of the Middle East and its own role in the region as a key, vital and influential player. Hizbullah is currently serving under Iran’s command as a part of Assad’s forces, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have been involved in Syrian events. Iran’s aid to Assad illustrates Iran’s goal of becoming a power capable of countering the West’s influence. Read More »
Majority and Minorities in the Arab World: The Lack of a Unifying Narrative Zvi Mazel, January 3, 2012 The current sociopolitical eruption in the Arab world, known as the “Arab Spring”, is the result of the total failure of Arab states to create a unifying national narrative and establish modern egalitarian polities. The 90 years since the Arab states were established have been fraught with discord between the different communities, political and economic discrimination, uprisings, military coups, subversion, and conflicts between the states themselves. However, this eruption has opened the door to Islamic rule, which threatens to destabilize the region. Read More »
Turkey, the Global Muslim Brotherhood, and the Gaza Flotilla Steven G. Merley, November 30, 2011 This report resents the results of an investigation into the role played by the Global Muslim Brotherhood and its Turkish allies in the May 2010 Gaza Flotilla which involved a violent altercation between passengers on one of the ships and Israeli naval forces. Read More »
Iran’s Race for Regional Supremacy: Strategic Implications for the Middle East September 21, 2011 Iran has accelerated its quest for regional supremacy through its mobilization of both Shiite and Sunni terror surrogates, including Hizbullah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq and in the Gulf, the Taliban in Afghanistan, and Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Al Aksa Martyrs’ Brigades in the Palestinian territories. These actions could destabilize the entire region, creating a threat to global security. Read More »
Ethnic ConflictThe Kurdish Awakening in Syria: Could It Lead to Regional War? Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, August 15, 2013 Regional stability may be threatened by the rise of independent Kurdish populations in the Middle East. A “Greater Kurdistan” is no longer a remote possibility. This reality poses challenges for all of the states with large Kurdish populations: Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran. Read More »
The Iranian Role in the 2012 Gaza Conflict Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, December 2, 2012 Iran’s supply of rockets to the Palestinians shows a lack of fear of Israel and the Western powers. The rift between Sunnis and Shia that is evident in various Middle Eastern conflicts makes clear that Iran will confront Sunni states like Egypt and Turkey over issues of regional hegemony and influence. These changes are becoming clear not only in actions in Gaza, but in the Syrian conflict as well. Read More »
Egypt’s Shiite Minority: Between the Egyptian Hammer and the Iranian Anvil Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, September 23, 2012 Since the Egyptian Revolution, many of Egypt’s 2.2 million Shiites began demanding rights after the repression of the Mubarak era. However, these requests have been met with threats from hardline Salafi groups. The election of Mohammad Morsi radicalized the issue. In response, Iran has distanced itself from Egyptian Shiites. However, with the growing sectarian divide between Sunni and Shia, this could easily strain relations between Egypt and Iran and ignite a regional flashpoint. Read More »
The Future of Kurdistan: Between Turkey, the Iraq War, and the Syrian Revolt Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, August 30, 2012 For the first time in modern Kurdish history, an exclusively Kurdish-controlled enclave has developed on the border with Kurdish areas of Turkey. The Free Kurdish Army, responsible for claiming this land, is continuing their mission to gain control of Kurdish cities in Syria. With these new developments, the emergence of a “Greater Kurdistan” is no longer a remote possibility. This area is a potential land bridge for many of the conflicts in the region; therefore control of this land is important to many of the powers currently embroiled in regional conflicts. Kurdistan has the potential to become a new flashpoint in the Middle East. This report provides an overview of the Kurds and Kurdistan. Read More »
Majority and Minorities in the Arab World: The Lack of a Unifying Narrative Zvi Mazel, January 3, 2012 The current sociopolitical eruption in the Arab world, known as the “Arab Spring”, is the result of the total failure of Arab states to create a unifying national narrative and establish modern egalitarian polities. The 90 years since the Arab states were established have been fraught with discord between the different communities, political and economic discrimination, uprisings, military coups, subversion, and conflicts between the states themselves. However, this eruption has opened the door to Islamic rule, which threatens to destabilize the region.Read More » |
