Alerts

Hizbullah’s Hassan Nasrallah and Iran Plan a Mediterranean Naval Campaign Against Israel

Nasrallah threatens Cyprus; a U.S. Aircraft Carrier Moves to the Mediterranean
Share this
The USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier
The USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier, with Italian ships in the Red Sea, is now in the Mediterranean. (U.S. Navy)

Table of Contents

Hizbullah, under the leadership of Hassan Nasrallah, is coordinating with Iran to open a new front against Israel in the Mediterranean Sea. The objective is to neutralize the capabilities of the Israeli Air Force, which Hizbullah perceives as its greatest threat.

Nasrallah’s strategy includes targeting Cyprus, which he suspects could serve as an alternative operational base for the Israeli Air Force in the event of a war with Lebanon.

Hassan Nasrallah’s recent warning to Cyprus aims to discourage its cooperation with Israel, as part of a Hizbullah-Iranian broader campaign to raise international awareness about the potential consequences of an all-out war with Israel.

Nasrallah seeks to generate international pressure on Israel to prevent a significant pre-emptive attack on Hizbullah, whether through air or ground strikes, including large-scale air strikes like those that opened the 2006 Second Lebanon War after Hizbullah ambushed Israeli soldiers on patrol.

He emphasizes that any future conflict will differ significantly with new rules and strategies.

Hizbullah’s threats include a first strike on Israel involving a ground invasion of the Galilee, possibly via tunnels, attacks on Israeli ships in the Mediterranean, deploying swarms of drones into Israeli airspace to target military bases and strategic facilities, and attacking Israel’s gas rigs in the Mediterranean Sea.

Hizbullah fighters
Hizbullah fighters at an exercise in the southern Lebanese village of Aaramta in May 2023 (Tasnim/CC BY 4.0)

One If by Land, Two If by Sea

No Iranian warships from the regular navy or the Revolutionary Guard navy that could threaten Israel are currently in the Mediterranean. However, conceivably, long-range cruise and ballistic missiles could be fired at targets in the Mediterranean from Lebanese or Syrian bases as they have been launched against Red Sea shipping from Houthi territory.

In 2006, Hizbullah shot a Chinese-made C-802 anti-ship cruise missile from the Lebanese coast that almost sank an Israeli missile boat, the Hanit. Today, Hizbullah naval weapons could include Iranian ship drones and even mini-submarines.

Nasrallah’s message is directed at all regional players in the Middle East and the international community supporting Israel. Some suspect that he, alongside Iran, plan to impose a significant naval blockade on Israel in the Mediterranean Sea.

Since the beginning of the war, Iran and Hizbullah have been preparing for this move, with the threat to Cyprus being part of Nasrallah’s plans.

Without an air force, Hizbullah relies on its large fleet of UAVs, aiming to neutralize the Israeli Air Force through two primary actions: a surprise attack with precision missiles and UAVs on Israeli Air Force bases and against radar and air defense facilities, including paralyzing Ben Gurion Airport.

Nasrallah’s goal is to ground Israeli aircraft to prevent them from conducting missions in Lebanon against mid- and long-range missile launchers.

A joint exercise of Cypriot and Israeli military units in Cyprus in May 2023
A joint exercise of Cypriot and Israeli military units in Cyprus in May 2023. (Cypriot National Guard)

Nasrallah fears that Israel might preempt his planned attack by deploying its air force to Cypriot bases, a scenario the Israeli Air Force practiced with Cyprus during military exercises over the past year. “Opening Cypriot airports and bases to the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon would mean that the Cypriot government is part of the war, and the resistance will deal with it as part of the war,” Nasrallah said.

Cyprus is 250 km from Lebanon’s coast.

Hizbullah officials told the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar that Israeli, American, British, and French intelligence delegations met in Cyprus to coordinate military cooperation against Hizbullah and Iran. “Opening Cypriot airports and bases to the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon would mean that the Cypriot government is part of the war, and the resistance will deal with it as part of the war,” Nasrallah said.

In May 2023, Israel and Cyprus conducted their “Jason-Blue Sun” air exercise, with personnel from the Cypriot National Guard air force command and the Israeli military air force participating.

These meetings, Hizbullah argues, are not about European security but rather to support Israel in conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon and to provide an air defense umbrella similar to what was offered on April 14 when Iran launched over 300 ballistic missiles and UAVs at Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Iranian Gen. Mohamad Reza Zahedi in Damascus.

Hizbullah asserts that the British planes based in Cyprus intercepted drones and missiles launched from Iran on April 14, 2024.

Nasrallah views Cyprus as Europe’s gateway to Lebanon, holding it directly responsible for any developments.

The United States and European countries are wary of Nasrallah’s and Iran’s intentions to make the Mediterranean Sea a new conflict zone.

They have already witnessed the capabilities of Iran’s proxies in the Red Sea, where Houthi attacks from Yemen on ships and the ongoing blockade on Israel serve as warnings for the Mediterranean.

The Houthis claim to have hit 150 ships linked to Israel so far.

In his first speech following the outbreak of war on October 7, Nasrallah warned the United States of harming its fleet after President Biden announced the deployment of two aircraft carriers to the area.

Yoni Ben Menachem

Yoni Ben Menachem, a veteran Arab affairs and diplomatic commentator for Israel Radio and Television, is a senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Center. He served as Director General and Chief Editor of the Israel Broadcasting Authority.
Share this

Subscribe to Daily Alert

The Daily Alert – Israel news digest appears every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

Related Items

Stay Informed, Always

Get the latest news, insights, and updates directly in your inbox—be the first to know!

Subscribe to Jerusalem Issue Briefs
The Daily Alert – Israel news digest appears every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

Notifications

The Jerusalem Center
Canada investigating Israeli-Canadian IDF soldiers?
JCFA senior researcher, Amb. Alan Baker slams the probe as a “political PR stunt with no legal basis.” “This isn’t justice—it’s a betrayal. Canada is siding with PLO propaganda over facts.”
11:29am
The Jerusalem Center
What makes a child believe killing a #Jew is justified?

In PA textbooks, Jews are called liars and frauds; their fate: elimination. This is #indoctrination—not #education. But change is happening. On East to West, @IMPACT_SE CEO Marcus Sheff exposes how #UNRWA-funded schools are fueling extremism—and what real reform looks like.  Listen now on Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/2JHqh973U  Watch on YouTube: youtu.be/8OkJTGNfVUc

11:43am
The Jerusalem Center
Highlights from the @Jerusalem_Post Annual Conference in NYC:

Dr. @Dan_Diker, President of the JCFA: “October 7 wasn’t just an attack on Israel — it was a blow to the U.S. on Israeli soil. It demands moral clarity and a united front between Israel and the U.S. to defeat jihadist terror.”

2:20pm
The Jerusalem Center
@XAVIAERD says it like it is

Well, @XAVIAERD says it like it is: If you’re part of “#Queers for #Palestine,” he’ll pay for your flight to #Gaza. Go see for yourself how they treat LGBTQ+ people over there. Don’t miss this bold take on the Israel-Hamas war and the woke right.

2:32pm
The Jerusalem Center
“This isn’t Israel vs. Hamas — it’s the frontline of the free world.”

“This isn’t Israel vs. Hamas — it’s the frontline of the free world.” On Our Middle East by @JNS_org, @Dan_Diker@KhaledAbuToameh (JCFA/@GatestoneInst) break it down: If Hamas isn’t crushed, Iran wins. The jihadis—from #Gaza to your campus—get the green light. Diker: “This war is for the West.” No fluff. No filters. Just raw insight from two insiders who actually know what’s going on.  Watch: youtu.be/4Aq_zcbb4Yo

2:15pm
The Jerusalem Center
5/5 Lt. Col. Kalo on East to West with @smartinezamir:

“This operation showcases Israel’s strategic intelligence superiority both regionally and globally. It demonstrates the moral commitment to recovered soldiers and also strengthens Israel’s position with allies.” youtube.com/watch?v=nIvNNi

2:07pm
The Jerusalem Center
4/5 The operation built on intelligence gathered during the 2019 #Baumel recovery

#Mossad agents operated under cover in #Syria for years, visiting a graveyard multiple times under fire to collect remains for DNA matching. The intelligence community’s evolution combines technology, big data analysis, and human intelligence capabilities.

2:02pm
The Jerusalem Center
3/5 This recovery coincided with the release of Israeli hostage Edan Alexander

This recovery coincided with the release of Israeli hostage Edan Alexander from #Hamas in #Gaza, significantly boosting national morale amid an ongoing conflict now stretching over 18 months. The dual successes demonstrate #Israel‘s unwavering commitment to bringing all soldiers home.

1:58pm
The Jerusalem Center
2/5 The operation used the power vacuum following #Assad’s fall from #Damascus

Lt. Col. Avi Kalo, former head of IDF Prisoners & Missing Persons Division, calls it “an outstanding event that brings hope and new spirit to the people of Israel.” The operation utilized the power vacuum following #Assad‘s fall from #Damascus, allowing #Israeli intelligence to deploy ground capabilities in #Syria.

1:56pm
The Jerusalem Center
1/5 Israeli forces recovered the remains of Sergeant First Class Zvi Feldman

In an unprecedented operation, Israeli forces have recovered the remains of Sergeant First Class Zvi #Feldman, missing since the 1982 Battle of Sultan Yacoub. The complex #Mossad mission was conducted deep within #Syrian territory, 43 years after his disappearance. This follows the successful 2019 recovery of Zachary #Baumel from the same battle.

1:54pm
The Jerusalem Center
A molotov attack on a bus = a “barbecue party”?

That’s what #Palestinian kids are being taught under @UNRWA  — from grade school to graduation. This isn’t education. It’s indoctrination. Marcus Sheff of @IMPACT_SE  breaks it down with @smartinezamir

12:51pm

Close