Alerts

Failing Iranian State Gives Growing Opportunity for Regime Change

Iran stands more vulnerable and more desperate than at any time since the mullahs' rise to power in 1979
Share this
Ali Khamenei meets with then-Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, in Tehran, May 30, 2024
Ali Khamenei meets with then-Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, in Tehran, May 30, 2024. (Khamenei.ir)

Table of Contents

This article originally appeared in the Jerusalem Post on December 30, 2024.

Iran is more vulnerable and desperate than at any time since its rise to power in 1979. Now is the time for Iranians to topple the regime and pave a pathway to a free, democratic, and unified state.

In the late 1970s, Uri Lubrani, Israel’s last ambassador to the Iranian court, and the legendary historian Prof. Bernard Lewis predicted the fall of the Shah of Iran Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Prof. Lewis recounted that the shah, in a state of agitation, referring to the Jewish-dominated Western media, demanded that Lewis “tell your people to stop writing negatively about me.”

Lewis, with a historian’s lens, saw the Shah’s antisemitic outburst as a signal of desperation that would foreshadow his downfall and the emergence of the Islamic regime.1

Lewis was correct, then and now. Forty-five years later, the Islamic regime’s desperation to survive has fueled an unprecedented antisemitic discourse targeting Jews inside Iran. Previously, the regime had limited its antisemitic statements to Zionism and Zionists, avoiding attacking the Iranian Jewish community. However, his growing desperation, especially after the fall of its regional flagship terror proxy Hezbollah in November 2024, has fueled official regime Jew-hatred.

Today, the regime spreads anti-Jewish tropes methodically. Over the past year, imams in several Iranian cities have delegitimized “the Jewish nation” in weekly Friday mosque sermons. Mosque hate speech has transferred into mainstream television programming. Religious leaders, military officials, intellectuals, artists, and celebrities have moved beyond “anti-Zionist” invective to anti-Jewish slander. The regime seeks to create a perception that the Iranian people as a whole support their anti-Jewish agenda.2

Examples abound. Mohammad Khazali, the son of a prominent ayatollah, in a recent debate, blamed Jews for regime woes. In another instance, the imam of the city of Qazvim, a Khamenei appointment, excoriated Jews on a regime prime-time television talk show, Throraya. He offered Koranic references to prove that Jews love money, are greedy, and should live in fear of their Muslim overlords.3

In yet another example, senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) member Gen. Mohammed Jafar Assadi said on the regime news station that the “cursed Jews” had wronged the entire Middle East since October 7.4

When the interviewer asked, “Don’t you mean Zionists?” He replied, “No, there is no difference between them, they have done the worst things to their own prophets, it’s known (from Koranic sources).”5

Iranian author Mohammed Taghi Zahedi further declared on prime-time television that the Jewish Purim holiday is “against Iranians and the Aryan race” and was “created to fabricate Jewish history and victimhood.”6

Perhaps most consequentially, professional eulogizers – who traditionally perform before official speeches – referred to Jews as “infidels,” and said they should “expect a plague from Ali’s followers.”7 This was before a major speech by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Iran’s implosion

As in 1979, regime antisemitism again appears as a predictor of its disintegration. The Iranian economy is crumbling. The rial has become one of the world’s weakest currencies. Poverty and hunger abound, with food and medical production facilities shut down. Massive fuel shortages and power outages plague the country, with 17 electricity plants shut down. The presidential compound is blacked out. Businesses, schools, colleges, police stations, and government offices are shuttered.8

Iran’s implosion is largely the result of its overextended one billion dollar per year proxy program for Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, now mostly neutralized. Iran’s Syrian vassal in the Assad regime has collapsed. The Israeli military destruction of Iran’s air defense system and other sensitive sites has added to regime vulnerability and desperation.

Internally, public dissent has taken a toll on regime confidence. The regime’s brutal crackdown on the “Women, Life, Freedom” movement following its murder of Mahsa Amini in September 2022 increased its repression, jailing, torture, and hangings of dissidents, indicating its fear of losing control.

Khamenei has admitted as much.

He took to social media to mask regime failures and vulnerabilities, stating “They say that the Islamic Republic has lost its proxies in the region. Islamic Republic doesn’t have proxy forces. Yemen fights due to their faith. Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad fight because their beliefs compel them to do so.”9

Khamenei, opining over his loss of Syria, also posted on X, “The #Syrian youth have nothing to lose. Their universities, schools, homes, and lives aren’t safe. What can they do? They must stand with firm determination against those who have orchestrated and brought about this insecurity and God willing, they will prevail over them.”10

Domestically, the mullahs continue to play on the public’s deepest fears. They charge Israel and the United States with plotting to break up Iran into ethnic cantons.11 The regime has threatened its people, predicting that a denuded Iran would share the fate that befell the Libyans after the fall of Muammar Qaddafi and that of the Iraqi public after the fall of Saddam Hussein.12

Regime manipulation and antisemitism signal a last-ditch effort to mobilize the Iranian public against its vulnerable Jewish community. Iran is today naked, vulnerable, and more desperate than at any time since its rise to power in 1979. The Arab world views Israel and the incoming Trump administration as the strong horses of the Middle East. A resurgence of a US maximum pressure campaign can help tip the scale.

Now is the time for the Iranian people to topple the regime and pave a new pathway to a free, democratic, and unified state.

* * *

Notes

Dr. Dan Diker

Dr. Dan Diker, President of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, is the longtime Director of its Counter-Political Warfare Project. He is former Secretary-General of the World Jewish Congress and a Research Fellow of the International Institute for Counter Terrorism at Reichman University (formerly IDC, Herzliya). He has written six books exposing the “apartheid antisemitism” phenomenon in North America, and has authored studies on Iran’s race for regional supremacy and Israel’s need for defensible borders.
Share this

Subscribe to Daily Alert

The Daily Alert – Israel news digest appears every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

Related Items

Stay Informed, Always

Get the latest news, insights, and updates directly in your inbox—be the first to know!

Subscribe to Jerusalem Issue Briefs
The Daily Alert – Israel news digest appears every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday.







Notifications

The Jerusalem Center
Canada investigating Israeli-Canadian IDF soldiers?
JCFA senior researcher, Amb. Alan Baker slams the probe as a “political PR stunt with no legal basis.” “This isn’t justice—it’s a betrayal. Canada is siding with PLO propaganda over facts.”
11:29am
The Jerusalem Center
What makes a child believe killing a #Jew is justified?

In PA textbooks, Jews are called liars and frauds; their fate: elimination. This is #indoctrination—not #education. But change is happening. On East to West, @IMPACT_SE CEO Marcus Sheff exposes how #UNRWA-funded schools are fueling extremism—and what real reform looks like.  Listen now on Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/2JHqh973U  Watch on YouTube: youtu.be/8OkJTGNfVUc

11:43am
The Jerusalem Center
Highlights from the @Jerusalem_Post Annual Conference in NYC:

Dr. @Dan_Diker, President of the JCFA: “October 7 wasn’t just an attack on Israel — it was a blow to the U.S. on Israeli soil. It demands moral clarity and a united front between Israel and the U.S. to defeat jihadist terror.”

2:20pm
The Jerusalem Center
@XAVIAERD says it like it is

Well, @XAVIAERD says it like it is: If you’re part of “#Queers for #Palestine,” he’ll pay for your flight to #Gaza. Go see for yourself how they treat LGBTQ+ people over there. Don’t miss this bold take on the Israel-Hamas war and the woke right.

2:32pm
The Jerusalem Center
“This isn’t Israel vs. Hamas — it’s the frontline of the free world.”

“This isn’t Israel vs. Hamas — it’s the frontline of the free world.” On Our Middle East by @JNS_org, @Dan_Diker@KhaledAbuToameh (JCFA/@GatestoneInst) break it down: If Hamas isn’t crushed, Iran wins. The jihadis—from #Gaza to your campus—get the green light. Diker: “This war is for the West.” No fluff. No filters. Just raw insight from two insiders who actually know what’s going on.  Watch: youtu.be/4Aq_zcbb4Yo

2:15pm
The Jerusalem Center
5/5 Lt. Col. Kalo on East to West with @smartinezamir:

“This operation showcases Israel’s strategic intelligence superiority both regionally and globally. It demonstrates the moral commitment to recovered soldiers and also strengthens Israel’s position with allies.” youtube.com/watch?v=nIvNNi

2:07pm
The Jerusalem Center
4/5 The operation built on intelligence gathered during the 2019 #Baumel recovery

#Mossad agents operated under cover in #Syria for years, visiting a graveyard multiple times under fire to collect remains for DNA matching. The intelligence community’s evolution combines technology, big data analysis, and human intelligence capabilities.

2:02pm
The Jerusalem Center
3/5 This recovery coincided with the release of Israeli hostage Edan Alexander

This recovery coincided with the release of Israeli hostage Edan Alexander from #Hamas in #Gaza, significantly boosting national morale amid an ongoing conflict now stretching over 18 months. The dual successes demonstrate #Israel‘s unwavering commitment to bringing all soldiers home.

1:58pm
The Jerusalem Center
2/5 The operation used the power vacuum following #Assad’s fall from #Damascus

Lt. Col. Avi Kalo, former head of IDF Prisoners & Missing Persons Division, calls it “an outstanding event that brings hope and new spirit to the people of Israel.” The operation utilized the power vacuum following #Assad‘s fall from #Damascus, allowing #Israeli intelligence to deploy ground capabilities in #Syria.

1:56pm
The Jerusalem Center
1/5 Israeli forces recovered the remains of Sergeant First Class Zvi Feldman

In an unprecedented operation, Israeli forces have recovered the remains of Sergeant First Class Zvi #Feldman, missing since the 1982 Battle of Sultan Yacoub. The complex #Mossad mission was conducted deep within #Syrian territory, 43 years after his disappearance. This follows the successful 2019 recovery of Zachary #Baumel from the same battle.

1:54pm
The Jerusalem Center
A molotov attack on a bus = a “barbecue party”?

That’s what #Palestinian kids are being taught under @UNRWA  — from grade school to graduation. This isn’t education. It’s indoctrination. Marcus Sheff of @IMPACT_SE  breaks it down with @smartinezamir

12:51pm

Close