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After Fordow: A Pause, Not a Peace

To treat Fordow as an end is to invite a more terrible beginning. Iran’s revolution was never about borders; it was about destiny. And that, like all ideological viruses, cannot be quarantined by a missile strike.
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The Fordow uranium enrichment plant
The Fordow uranium enrichment plant. (NASA/Wikimedia)

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It is a truth too easily ignored in our ceaseless thirst for closure: blowing up a building does not annihilate an idea. And so it was that as the Fordow nuclear facility in Iran was reduced to rubble – courtesy of Israeli precision and a belated American cameo – a chorus of relief flooded Western airwaves. Relief, that is, from the sort of people who believe fireworks signify the end of a war and not the beginning of its next, far murkier chapter.

Indeed, the destruction of Fordow, the subterranean sanctum where Iran’s nuclear ambition festered in fortified secrecy, is best understood not as a final act but as a scene change. It is now that we must ask the question no one in Brussels or Berkeley seems brave enough to mouth: have we truly thwarted the nuclear aspirations of a regime built not on pragmatism, but on eschatology? Have we destroyed their capacity, or merely given them a martyr’s myth?

The Islamic Republic of Iran is not a Westphalian state. It is not contained by its borders, nor is its ambition reducible to missiles and warheads. It is a revolutionary project – Shi’ite in theology, totalitarian in impulse, expansionist by design. To imagine that its defeat lies in the pulverization of uranium centrifuges is to believe, with tragic naiveté, that a serpent dies when you cut off its tail.

Let us recall what Fordow represented. This was not merely a nuclear site; it was an insurance policy against diplomacy, a fortified shrine to the belief that patience and lies could yield apocalypse in a bottle. Built into a mountain, declared late, and insulated from scrutiny, it was the pride of an Iranian regime that has made subterfuge into statecraft. For years, Western diplomats played chess with a mullahdom playing poker, bluffing enrichment levels, cheating on inspections, and smirking their way through international forums while sponsoring Hizbullah and the Houthis with impunity.

And so Fordow’s destruction – surgical, stunning, a reminder of Israeli and American reach – is a victory, yes. But it is the sort of victory that merely brings the war into new terrain. And this terrain, my dear readers, is not geological. It is ideological, and it is mobile.

We must, if we are to avoid the fate of fools, consider what comes next. If Fordow was the snake’s head, then the IRGC is the snake’s body, and it slithers with intent beyond Iran’s soil. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), already designated a terrorist organization by the United States, has shown a genius for reinvention and export. Where one site falls, another rises. Where one general is vaporized, ten more posters go up on the walls of Qom and Qusayr.

The destruction of Fordow will not yield peace; it will yield a diaspora of ambition. Expect the IRGC to proliferate its expertise across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Expect what was once buried under rock to now be disseminated through networks – scientific, ideological, digital. We are not witnessing the end of Iran’s nuclear project. We are witnessing its decentralization.

What the West should fear most is not the reconstitution of Fordow in another hole in another mountain. It should fear that Iran has learned from every moment of restraint, every sanction they weathered, every diplomatic overture offered with trembling hand. They have learned that our red lines are written in chalk. They have learned that the West fears escalation more than it fears annihilation. And so, they will escalate.

Consider the ideological fervor that animates the regime. This is not mere nationalism. This is the belief that chaos invites the return of the Mahdi, that nuclear capability is not only a deterrent but a theological imperative. This is not a regime content to be feared; it wants to be vindicated. In such a framework, the loss of a facility is not a defeat. It is a provocation.

Moreover, the regime’s capacity to move and adapt should not be underestimated. While Western security establishments go cross-eyed counting centrifuges, Iran cultivates human infrastructure – scientists, cyber-operatives, religious indoctrinators – capable of rebooting programs under foreign flags or in failed states. This is not speculative paranoia. It is a reading of their playbook: export revolution, embed ideology, wait.

And so, the question must be asked, not as a rhetorical flourish but as a matter of grave urgency: are we safe? Have we simply bought time, or have we changed the game? If we allow ourselves the luxury of self-congratulation while Iran’s proxies regroup and its scientists disperse, then we have won nothing. We have delayed.

The appropriate Western response cannot be merely vigilance. It must be aggression – not necessarily of the kinetic variety, but certainly of the intellectual, diplomatic, and strategic kind. We must dismantle not only Iran’s infrastructure, but its influence. This means ending the absurdities of European complicity, the cowardice of UN appeasement, and the fatal idealism that diplomacy alone can neuter fanaticism.

We must also support, with more than hashtags and hollow resolutions, the Iranian dissidents who have risked everything to oppose this regime. They, not our diplomats, are the ones who understand the stakes. They are the real interlocutors, the ones who speak not in the sterile language of policy briefs, but in the anguished clarity of those who have seen their brothers hanged and their sisters veiled into submission.

To treat Fordow as an end is to invite a more terrible beginning. Iran’s revolution was never about borders; it was about destiny. And that, like all ideological viruses, cannot be quarantined by a missile strike.

Let us not blink in the blinding light of our own handiwork. We struck a blow, but unless we also strike at the root – the theocratic absolutism that animates the regime – we will find ourselves here again, on a darker night, with fewer options and a more emboldened enemy.

This, then, is the challenge. To understand that a shattered bunker is not a shattered regime. To realize that the West’s great peril lies not in what Iran builds, but in what it believes. And to summon the will – at last – to confront not merely the weapons of our enemies, but the ideas that make them inevitable.

Catherine Perez-Shakdam

Catherine Perez-Shakdam is the Executive Director at the Forum for Foreign Relations and an associate scholar at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.
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