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Newest Publications
Is Egypt Heading toward a Military Regime?
Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah
Publications by Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah
Is Egypt Heading toward a Military Regime?
An increasing number of Egyptians are calling on the army to return to the political scene to replace President Morsi. Read More »
Stalemate in the Syrian Civil War
On the second anniversary of the civil war in Syria, nothing on the horizon foretells a ceasefire. Read More »
Iranian Shiite Terror Cell in Nigeria Followed a Familiar Pattern
Shiite communities around the world represent the infrastructure upon which Iran builds its subversive policies worldwide. Read More »
The Islamist Challenge from North Africa
The fall of Mali would directly threaten neighboring Niger, the sixth largest producer of uranium ore in the world. Read More »
Two Years of the Arab Spring: Reflections about Democracy in the Arab World
During a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and several American senators, Rabin was asked how he could envisage signing a peace agreement with Arab regimes that did not profess democracy, but rather acted as oppressors of their own ... Read More »
The Rise of the Salafis in Lebanon: A New Sunni-Shiite Battlefield
The Sunni community in Lebanon is being led by a new breed of Islamist Salafi leaders such as Sheikh Ahmad al-Assir. Read More »
Hizbullah’s Unspoken War in Syria
Hizbullah claims control of 18 Shiite villages in Syria along the border with Lebanon. Read More »
Egypt’s Shiite Minority: Between the Egyptian Hammer and the Iranian Anvil
Egyptian President Morsi is reported to have said the Shia are more dangerous to Islam than the Jews. Read More »
The Future of Kurdistan: Between Turkey, the Iraq War, and the Syrian Revolt
Kurdistan – at the tri-border area between Iraq, Syria, and Turkey – may be the new regional flashpoint in the Middle East. Read More »
Morsi’s Victory and Egypt’s Second Republic
Hamas in Gaza – an offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood – has high hopes, but it will soon be disappointed. Read More »
A Second Afghanistan in Mali?
In March 2012 Mali collapsed into chaos after soldiers toppled the president, with Tuareg rebels taking control of two-thirds of the country. Read More »
Al-Qaeda and the Jihadists Join the Battle against the Syrian Regime
The battle over Syria has descended into a carefully orchestrated uprising coordinated and fueled by al-Qaeda operatives. Read More »
Are Egypt’s Islamists Headed for a Collision with the Military?
The Islamists have hijacked the Egyptian revolution. They created the illusion that they would share power with the non-Islamic forces, but then went on to win 70% of the seats in parliament. Read More »
Saudi Wahhabism Expands into Libya
The tension between the traditional Sufis and the Salafis has become a key divide in Libyan politics. Read More »
Egypt: ‘Islamocracy’ under Military Rule
Will Egypt’s Islamists accept the military as the country’s source of power and authority? Since the beginning of the revolution against Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood has avoided any direct confrontation with the military and has repeatedly sought dialog with it. Indeed, since the Brotherhood is focused on domestic policy, it should have no intrinsic problem accepting the fact that the military will decide on matters of national security and foreign policy, at least initially. Read More »
Heading for War between the Two Sudans?
Since South Sudan seceded from Sudan in July 2011, there have been numerous clashes along their common border. Read More »
Is the Wind Turning in Favor of Assad?
The Baba Amro district of Homs may now become the turning point in battle between opposition forces and Assad’s regime. Read More »
A Year after the Revolution: Egypt and the U.S. Battle over Democracy
In a move former President Hosni Mubarak’s regime did not dare to make, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) ordered Egyptian soldiers and police to raid the offices of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Cairo on December 30, 2011. ... Read More »
Is Libya Disintegrating as a State?
Libyan national army have stepped up their presence in Tripoli, urging regional militias to join their forces. Read More »
Is There an End in Sight to the Syrian Regime?
Events in Syria seem to have reached a stalemate. On the one hand, the regime is failing to quell the civilian rebellion against it, while on the other hand, the opposition to Bashar Assad cannot yet be seen as an ... Read More »
The “Free Syrian Army” Challenges Assad
The Free Syrian Army (FSA), the rebel force fighting Syria’s President Bashar Assad, has included “Raising the flag on Iwo Jima” – depicting the bravery of U.S. Marines in World War II – on its official Facebook page. This appears ... Read More »
Tunisia: The Blossoming of a Pluralistic Society?
Nine months after the popular revolution that put an end to the authoritarian regime of Zine El Abdine Ben Ali, Tunisians voted for the first time in what appear to be free and fair elections, and the voter turnout was ... Read More »
The New Flare-Up between Israel and Lebanon Over Gas
The potential oil and gas fields off the Lebanese and Israeli coasts look set to become a source of conflict in the years ahead. Behind the tensions is the fact that the maritime border between Israel and Lebanon has never been delineated because the two states are still formally at war. Read More »
The UN Indictment of Hizbullah
June 30, 2011, a UN-backed court issued a long-awaited indictment and arrest warrants for four Lebanese Hizbullah members responsible for the 2005 murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. According to the Lebanese media, the suspects include Mustafa Badreddine, ... Read More »
Toward a Radical Lebanon?
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati recently succeeded in forming a new government dominated by the Hizbullah-led March 8 alliance, thus ending a deadlock that left the divided country in a power vacuum for almost five months. The thirty-member cabinet was ... Read More »
THE TUNISIAN REVOLUTION REVISITED
Democracy does not seem to be closer in Tunisia today than it was four months ago, since the beginning of the so-called “Jasmine Revolution.” Instead it seems that Tunisia is in a stalemate, caught in moving sands, unable to stabilize ... Read More »
What Other Surprises Are the Palestinians Preparing for Israel?
May 15, 2011, might become a turning point in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. One of the main components of Israel’s security is the deterrence factor Israel projects towards its enemies, a factor that has successfully stopped the Arab ... Read More »
Bashar Assad, the Protests in Syria, and the Iranian Connection
Bashar Assad’s options have become very limited since his inability to put an end to the popular unrest that has stricken Syria since mid-March. The latest events show very clearly the widening cracks in his regime, as evidenced by the resignation ... Read More »
New Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Elaraby Reveals Distrubing Foreign Policy Trends
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently expressed his concerns to EU ambassadors about future trends in Egyptian foreign policy. “I am very concerned over some of the voices we’ve been hearing from Egypt recently,” Netanyahu told the ambassadors. “I’m especially concerned ... Read More »
An Iranian Intelligence Failure: Arms Ship in Nigeria Reveals Iran’s Penetration of West Africa
Since the Khomeini revolution, Iran has invested heavily in strengthening its diplomatic, economic, and security ties with Western African countries, especially with Senegal, Mauritania, Gambia, and Nigeria. Read More »
Syria: Winners and Losers in Eventual Regime Change
The recent protests in Syria and the subsequent crackdown by the regime have shown once more that the old concepts governing the assessment of the stability of regimes in the Middle East and North Africa have failed to forecast the ... Read More »
The Follies of Gaddafi
Unlike his neighbors east and west of him, Gaddafi has vowed to fight till the bitter end. He will not willingly relinquish power at the price of an ongoing civil war and of the practical division of Libya into two ... Read More »
Libya: The End of the “L’enfant Terrible”?
Libya, holder of Africa’s largest oil reserves, is the latest Arab nation to be rocked by protests that culminated in the ouster of Tunisia’s president and the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. But, unlike Tunisia, Egypt, and other “orderly” ... Read More »
Could the Kingdom of Bahrain Become an Iranian Pearl Harbor?
The Islamic Republic of Iran has reiterated in the past that its military strategy is based on “asymmetric warfare“ – Tehran will not confront the U.S. and its allies directly, given the superior military technology of the West, but rather ... Read More »
The Egyptian Supreme Council of the Armed Forces Under Field Marshal Tantawi: A Recipe for Revolution or More of the Same?
Egypt is ruled today by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, under the leadership of Field Marshal Muhammad Hussein Tantawi. The country is now ruled under military law, something which the masses did not expect and which does not fit in with the idea of democratic reform. At 76, Tantawi is no revolutionary. He and his colleagues have a lot to lose if they accede to actual demands for change. Read More »
The Egyptian Supreme Council of the Armed Forces Under Field Marshal Tantawi: A Recipe for Revolution or More of the Same?
Egypt is ruled today by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, under the leadership of Field Marshal Muhammad Hussein Tantawi. The country is now ruled under military law, something which the masses did not expect and which does not ... Read More »
Mubarak’s Last Salvo?
The dramatic fifty-word statement on Feb.11 by Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman announcing that President Mubarak had decided to step down from the office of the President of the Republic and had charged the High Council of the Armed Forces ... Read More »
Who is President Salva Kiir Mayardit of Southern Sudan, Africa’s Newest Country?
Salva Kiir Mayardit, who wears his trademark black cowboy hat at all times, will be the first president of independent Southern Sudan after 99% voted in favor of separation from Sudan in the January 2011 elections. On February 6, the ... Read More »
Where Is Tunisia Heading?
Iran has maintained a presence in the Tunisian arena for years. In 1987, documents found in the possession of an official of the Iranian Embassy arrested in Europe testified to the ties that Iran maintains with Tunisian fundamentalists. That same year, a Tunisian named Lutfi, who had been recruited by Iran and underwent training there prior to joining a local network in Tunisia, unveiled to French police precise information regarding Iran’s subversive activity in Tunisia. Read More »
Iran Steps Up Arming Hizbullah Against Israel
Hizbullah has 50,000 rockets and missiles, including 40-50 Fatah 110 missiles and 10 SCUD-C ground-to-ground missiles. Furthermore, some 10,000 Hizbullah fighters have been provided with a broad range of modern weapons, while the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have trained Hizbullah teams to operate these weapons. Read More »