Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah

Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, a special analyst for the Middle East at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, was formerly Foreign Policy Advisor to Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Deputy Head for Assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence.

Publications by Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah

In Algeria, “After President Bouteflika” Is Rapidly Approaching

For the West, the departure of Algeria’s Bouteflika could be a big loss.  Read More »

Is Lebanon on the Brink of a New Civil War?

Tripoli’s fall would have been the beginning of the disintegration of the Lebanese state  Read More »

Yemen Changes Hands. Will an Iranian Stronghold Emerge Near the Entrance to the Red Sea?

Historic changes have occurred in Yemen. Will Yemen now be aligned with Iran? – Will an Iranian Stronghold Emerge Near the Entrance to the Red Sea?  Read More »

Heavy Blow Administered to Assad’s Foes

Ahrar al Sham will need time to re-organize and to fill the ranks of its dead commanders.  Read More »

The Structure of the Islamic State (ISIS)

ISIS is much more than a terrorist organization; it is a terrorist state with almost all governing elements.   Read More »

ISIS Moves on Lebanon

Lebanon may soon face a head-on confrontation with Jihadi forces coming from Syria and Iraq  Read More »

The Islamic State Ends the Centuries-Old Christian Presence in Mosul, Iraq

July 19, 2014 will go down as just another day in the calendar of humanity, characterized by many wars and events worldwide. However, that day should become a day of remembrance for Christianity in the Middle East. It is the […]  Read More »

Egypt, Israel and Hamas — the Impossible Equation

It is in the national interest of both Egypt and Israel to subdue Hamas   Read More »

Is the Fall of Mosul in Iraq to the Jihadists a “Game Changer”?

The radical group, the “Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS),” has scored a huge achievement with the capture of Mosul, Iraq’s second biggest city with over 1.5 million inhabitants, and areas of the Kirkuk oil producing province.1 By controlling […]  Read More »

Sissi’s Election as President: What Does It Mean for Egypt?

Sissi is the first Egyptian president who has not participated in a war with Israel.  Read More »

Boko Haram and the Future of Nigeria

Subduing Boko Haram is in the West’s interest.  Read More »

Egypt and Saudi Arabia Battle the Jihadist Current

Saudi Arabia has decided to join the battle against jihadists in the Middle East  Read More »

Hamas Punished by Egypt

Hamas needs to devise a new survival strategy.  Read More »

Egyptian Field Marshal Abd El-Fattah El-Sisi: A Profile

Field Marshal Sisi is viewed as a superhero who saved Egypt from anarchy and civil war.  Read More »

Foreign Jihadists Fighting in Syria: An Overview of the Danger

When the Syrian regime said almost two years ago that foreign combatants were fighting with the rebels against the regime, little attention was paid to the subject. Some even purposely ignored the signal and stressed that the Assad regime was […]  Read More »

How the Middle East Map Changed in 2013

The End of Pan-Islamisim In the three years since the beginning of the “Arab Spring,” a number of striking changes have occurred in the Arab world. First and foremost, the Arab Spring represents the end of pan-Islamism championed by Iran […]  Read More »

Egypt’s Turn to Russia

Russia’s share of the Egyptian arms market could greatly increase with the proposed $4 billion deal.  Read More »

Sisi Fever: Will the General be the Next President of Egypt?

The mood of Egyptians has changed from friendship and admiration toward the U.S. to open hostility.   Read More »

After the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Is Hamas in Gaza Next in Line?

Vol. 13, No. 27    1 October 2013  Egypt has finally decided to tackle the security threat from the Sinai Peninsula, a region that was nearly under the control of jihadist organizations with links to al-Qaeda and Hamas. The Egyptian army’s […]  Read More »

The Kurdish Awakening in Syria: Could It Lead to Regional War?

A “Greater Kurdistan” is no longer a remote possibility.  Read More »

New Threats to the Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty

Some Egyptians have begun to mobilize to urge the Egyptian government to cancel the peace treaty with Israel.  Read More »

Egypt after Morsi: The Defeat of Political Islam?

The Muslim Brotherhood’s 80-year dream to take over Egypt ended in a fiasco, barely one year after one of their own was democratically elected to the office of President of Egypt.  Read More »

Ethiopian Dam over Blue Nile Raises Specter of Conflict with Egypt

President Morsi threatened that “all options were open” if Ethiopia diverts the Blue Nile.  Read More »

Towards a Constitutional Crisis in Egypt?

Egypt’s Supreme Constitutional Court ruled on June 2, 2013, that the laws governing the election of members of the Islamist-dominated Shura Council (Egypt’s upper house) were illegal and invalid.1 President Morsi’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), the Muslim Brotherhood’s political […]  Read More »

Iranian Forces on the Golan?

On May 26, 2013, the Iranian regime officially began to recruit Basiji fighters to fight with Assad’s troops in Syria. The Basij are the popular militia of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and serve as a reserve formation. Known […]  Read More »

Is Egypt Heading toward a Military Regime?

An increasing number of Egyptians are calling on the army to return to the political scene to replace President Morsi.  Read More »

Stalemate in the Syrian Civil War

On the second anniversary of the civil war in Syria, nothing on the horizon foretells a ceasefire.  Read More »

Iranian Shiite Terror Cell in Nigeria Followed a Familiar Pattern

Shiite communities around the world represent the infrastructure upon which Iran builds its subversive policies worldwide.  Read More »

The Islamist Challenge from North Africa

The fall of Mali would directly threaten neighboring Niger, the sixth largest producer of uranium ore in the world.   Read More »

Two Years of the Arab Spring: Reflections about Democracy in the Arab World

Two years after the outburst of what was naively called the “Arab Spring” by romantics and wishful thinkers who thought the Arab world was about to witness a new era of liberty and democracy, one can only be disappointed by the realities on the ground:  Read More »

Syria: Has the Assad Regime Reached the Terminal Phase?

The Syrian regime is steadily losing ground to rebel forces, since as much as 60 to 70 percent of the territory has fallen into their hands.  Read More »

The Rise of the Salafis in Lebanon: A New Sunni-Shiite Battlefield

The Sunni community in Lebanon is being led by a new breed of Islamist Salafi leaders such as Sheikh Ahmad al-Assir.  Read More »

Hizbullah’s Unspoken War in Syria

Hizbullah claims control of 18 Shiite villages in Syria along the border with Lebanon.  Read More »

Egypt’s Shiite Minority: Between the Egyptian Hammer and the Iranian Anvil

Egyptian President Morsi is reported to have said the Shia are more dangerous to Islam than the Jews.  Read More »

The Future of Kurdistan: Between Turkey, the Iraq War, and the Syrian Revolt

Kurdistan – at the tri-border area between Iraq, Syria, and Turkey – may be the new regional flashpoint in the Middle East.   Read More »

Kurdistan: The Next Flashpoint Between Turkey, Iraq, and the Syrian Revolt

Kurdistan – at the tri-border area between Iraq, Syria, and Turkey – may be the new regional flashpoint in the Middle East.   Read More »

Morsi’s Victory and Egypt’s Second Republic

Hamas in Gaza – an offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood – has high hopes, but it will soon be disappointed.   Read More »

A Second Afghanistan in Mali?

In March 2012 Mali collapsed into chaos after soldiers toppled the president, with Tuareg rebels taking control of two-thirds of the country.  Read More »

Al-Qaeda and the Jihadists Join the Battle against the Syrian Regime

The battle over Syria has descended into a carefully orchestrated uprising coordinated and fueled by al-Qaeda operatives.  Read More »

Are Egypt’s Islamists Headed for a Collision with the Military?

The Islamists have hijacked the Egyptian revolution. They created the illusion that they would share power with the non-Islamic forces, but then went on to win 70% of the seats in parliament.  Read More »

Saudi Wahhabism Expands into Libya

The tension between the traditional Sufis and the Salafis has become a key divide in Libyan politics.  Read More »

Egypt: ‘Islamocracy’ under Military Rule

Will Egypt’s Islamists accept the military as the country’s source of power and authority? Since the beginning of the revolution against Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood has avoided any direct confrontation with the military and has repeatedly sought dialog with it. Indeed, since the Brotherhood is focused on domestic policy, it should have no intrinsic problem accepting the fact that the military will decide on matters of national security and foreign policy, at least initially.  Read More »

Heading for War between the Two Sudans?

Since South Sudan seceded from Sudan in July 2011, there have been numerous clashes along their common border.   Read More »

Is the Wind Turning in Favor of Assad?

The Baba Amro district of Homs may now become the turning point in battle between opposition forces and Assad’s regime.  Read More »

A Year after the Revolution: Egypt and the U.S. Battle over Democracy

In a move former President Hosni Mubarak’s regime did not dare to make, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) ordered Egyptian soldiers and police to raid the offices of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Cairo on December 30, 2011. At least 17 U.S.-based and local groups receiving foreign funding were targeted, according to activists and Egyptian state media.  Read More »

Is Libya Disintegrating as a State?

Libyan national army have stepped up their presence in Tripoli, urging regional militias to join their forces.  Read More »

Is There an End in Sight to the Syrian Regime?

Events in Syria seem to have reached a stalemate. On the one hand, the regime is failing to quell the civilian rebellion against it, while on the other hand, the opposition to Bashar Assad cannot yet be seen as an […]  Read More »

The “Free Syrian Army” Challenges Assad

The Free Syrian Army (FSA), the rebel force fighting Syria’s President Bashar Assad, has included “Raising the flag on Iwo Jima” – depicting the bravery of U.S. Marines in World War II – on its official Facebook page. This appears […]  Read More »

Tunisia: The Blossoming of a Pluralistic Society?

Nine months after the popular revolution that put an end to the authoritarian regime of Zine El Abdine Ben Ali, Tunisians voted for the first time in what appear to be free and fair elections, and the voter turnout was […]  Read More »

Will the Armed Forces Retain Power in Egypt?

n September 26, 2011, the head of Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, chose to walk the streets of Cairo without his trademark military attire.   Read More »

The New Flare-Up between Israel and Lebanon Over Gas

The potential oil and gas fields off the Lebanese and Israeli coasts look set to become a source of conflict in the years ahead. Behind the tensions is the fact that the maritime border between Israel and Lebanon has never been delineated because the two states are still formally at war.   Read More »

The UN Indictment of Hizbullah

June 30, 2011, a UN-backed court issued a long-awaited indictment and arrest warrants for four Lebanese Hizbullah members responsible for the 2005 murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.  Read More »

Toward a Radical Lebanon?

Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati recently succeeded in forming a new government dominated by the Hizbullah-led March 8 alliance, thus ending a deadlock that left the divided country in a power vacuum for almost five months. The thirty-member cabinet was […]  Read More »

The Tunisian Revolution Revisited

Democracy does not seem to be closer in Tunisia today than it was four months ago, since the beginning of the so-called “Jasmine Revolution.” Instead it seems that Tunisia is in a stalemate, caught in moving sands, unable to stabilize and consolidate the domestic political scene.  Read More »

What Other Surprises Are the Palestinians Preparing for Israel?

Israel’s deterrence was put to a severe test again with the outbreak of the First Palestinian Intifida that began in 1987. For the first time since 1948, the Palestinians took to the streets and fought Israel’s presence: The threshold of fear had been overcome.  Read More »

Bashar Assad, the Protests in Syria, and the Iranian Connection

The resignation of more than 200 members of the ruling Baath Party in the Daraa region in protest against the massive use of live ammunition and tanks against the demonstrators (a first since the establishment of the Assad regime almost five decades ago) is a major statement.  Read More »

New Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Elaraby Reveals Distrubing Foreign Policy Trends

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently expressed his concerns to EU ambassadors about future trends in Egyptian foreign policy. “I am very concerned over some of the voices we’ve been hearing from Egypt recently,” Netanyahu told the ambassadors.  Read More »

An Iranian Intelligence Failure: Arms Ship in Nigeria Reveals Iran’s Penetration of West Africa

Since the Khomeini revolution, Iran has invested heavily in strengthening its diplomatic, economic, and security ties with Western African countries, especially with Senegal, Mauritania, Gambia, and Nigeria.  Read More »

Syria: Winners and Losers in Eventual Regime Change

The recent protests in Syria and the subsequent crackdown by the regime have shown once more that the old concepts governing the assessment of the stability of regimes in the Middle East and North Africa have failed to forecast the demise of totalitarian rule in the Arab world.  Read More »

The Follies of Gaddafi

Unlike his neighbors east and west of him, Gaddafi has vowed to fight till the bitter end. He will not willingly relinquish power at the price of an ongoing civil war and of the practical division of Libya into two sub-areas: Tripolitania and Cyrenaica, historically the two vilayets (departments) constituting Libya under Ottoman rule.  Read More »

Libya: The End of the “L’enfant Terrible”?

Libya, holder of Africa’s largest oil reserves, is the latest Arab nation to be rocked by protests that culminated in the ouster of Tunisia’s president and the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. But, unlike Tunisia, Egypt, and other “orderly” […]  Read More »

Could the Kingdom of Bahrain Become an Iranian Pearl Harbor?

Bahrain is, in fact, the ideal target for such an Iranian strategy.  Read More »

The Egyptian Supreme Council of the Armed Forces Under Field Marshal Tantawi: A Recipe for Revolution or More of the Same?

Egypt is ruled today by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, under the leadership of Field Marshal Muhammad Hussein Tantawi. The country is now ruled under military law, something which the masses did not expect and which does not fit in with the idea of democratic reform. At 76, Tantawi is no revolutionary. He and his colleagues have a lot to lose if they accede to actual demands for change.  Read More »

The Egyptian Supreme Council of the Armed Forces Under Field Marshal Tantawi: A Recipe for Revolution or More of the Same?

Egypt is ruled today by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, under the leadership of Field Marshal Muhammad Hussein Tantawi. The country is now ruled under military law, something which the masses did not expect and which does not […]  Read More »

Mubarak’s Last Salvo?

The dramatic fifty-word statement on Feb.11 by Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman announcing that President Mubarak had decided to step down from the office of the President of the Republic and had charged the High Council of the Armed Forces with administering the affairs of the country has raised many questions about the whole procedure, its legality, and its relevance to the Egyptian Constitution.  Read More »

Who is President Salva Kiir Mayardit of Southern Sudan, Africa’s Newest Country?

Salva Kiir Mayardit, who wears his trademark black cowboy hat at all times, will be the first president of independent Southern Sudan after 99% voted in favor of separation from Sudan in the January 2011 elections.  Read More »

Egypt – What Next?

Mubarak’s regime in Egypt is on the verge of collapse as the stalemate continues between the army and the crowds. The army is trying to exhaust the demonstrators and at the same time appear to the silent majority as the […]  Read More »

Where Is Tunisia Heading?

Iran has maintained a presence in the Tunisian arena for years. In 1987, documents found in the possession of an official of the Iranian Embassy arrested in Europe testified to the ties that Iran maintains with Tunisian fundamentalists. That same year, a Tunisian named Lutfi, who had been recruited by Iran and underwent training there prior to joining a local network in Tunisia, unveiled to French police precise information regarding Iran’s subversive activity in Tunisia.  Read More »

Iran Steps Up Arming Hizbullah Against Israel

Hizbullah has 50,000 rockets and missiles, including 40-50 Fatah 110 missiles and 10 SCUD-C ground-to-ground missiles. Furthermore, some 10,000 Hizbullah fighters have been provided with a broad range of modern weapons, while the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have trained Hizbullah teams to operate these weapons.  Read More »