Hizbullah is striving to preserve its power as the Lebanese government moves to disarm it, calibrating pressure while avoiding direct confrontation with civilians or the army. Israeli security sources describe deep frustration inside the organization, reflected in statements by senior figures and in motorcycle convoys leaving Beirut’s al-Dahiya stronghold toward the airport. The mounting presence of these convoys across the city serves as an early warning of how the situation could escalate if the disarmament push intensifies.
The group frames disarmament as “strategic suicide.” As Lebanese commentator Ali Khidar wrote in the Hizbullah-aligned Al-Akhbar on August 9, Hizbullah regards any attempt to strip its arsenal as the removal of Lebanon’s “last line of defense.” Even so, it remains cautious: closely coordinating with the Shiite Amal Movement, refusing to disarm, staying in government, steering clear of clashes with the army, and avoiding steps that could trigger civil war.
Against the backdrop of Israel’s preparations to conquer the entire Gaza Strip, Hizbullah has been forced to pull back from the Gaza front after heavy Israeli blows. It accepted a ceasefire roughly ten months ago and has refrained from attacking Israel, even as Israeli operations in southern Lebanon continue to degrade its military infrastructure and target members of the Radwan Force.
Security sources say Hizbullah is adjusting to a new security reality in the south and to shifts within Lebanon’s political system to ensure its survival. Its distress is growing, and within the Iran-led “resistance axis,” Hamas—still fighting in Gaza—now enjoys higher regard than Hizbullah, which absorbs daily strikes and holds its fire.
According to Israeli assessments, Hizbullah is buying time to chip away at the government’s disarmament decision. The organization has been humiliated, losing regional stature and domestic standing. It fears that disarmament would expose the Shiite community to retaliation and reduce Hizbullah to a powerless political party. Security estimates add that it worries disarmament could erase it from Lebanese politics and open the door to Lebanese normalization with Israel—its nightmare scenario.
While rebuilding its military capabilities with Iranian help, Hizbullah is approaching a moment of truth as disarmament plans inch toward implementation. It cannot stall indefinitely; it must choose between surrendering its weapons or confronting the Lebanese army—at the real risk of igniting civil war.
