Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s arrival in Washington as President Donald Trump’s first foreign visitor is touted as a great honor. The two men know each other well, but Netanyahu still needs to fasten his seatbelt. In Trump’s first weeks, new policies emanating from Washington are coming fast and furious, in a “shock and awe” cadence, confusing enemies and friends, not to mention the media and press.

A new administration taking office – especially from a different political party – is likened to a vast aircraft carrier – powerful but awaiting orders and direction. It could take time to turn the carrier and gather and deploy its powerful auxiliary armada of cruisers, destroyers, submarines, and supply ships. Some argue that it is unfair to judge a new administration in its first year which is often somnolent as new appointments find their bearings or old hands linger and hinder.

That is not the case of the new Trump administration. Its alacrity in the stream of executive orders, decisive actions on deportations and California water, canceling Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) policies, and naming cabinet appointments are dizzying and almost unprecedented. In foreign policy, Trump’s impositions of tariffs, cuts in foreign aid and United Nations funding, and the military attacks on ISIS bases in Somalia and Syria are impressive. How long has the man been in office?

The Biggest Change Is in Middle East Policy

“The first year of a new administration is usually hard for Israel,” the founder of AIPAC and my mentor, Isaiah (Si) Kenen, taught me. It was an important axiom in American Middle East policy. Kenen explained that it took months for new policies and directives to be applied and conveyed through the halls of the State Department and to U.S. embassies. Until the president’s clear policies were enacted, “Arabist” bureaucrats and diplomats’ tendencies often prevailed. The promises of the political campaigns are forgotten or ignored, and the new Congress’ traditional pro-Israel positions have not gelled.¹

Referring to the American political and election process almost 40 years ago, Kenen went so far as to argue, “The even years (when U.S. elections are held) belong to Israel; the odd years to the Arabs.”

And so it was, then and now:

• In 1969, its first year, the Nixon administration was reluctant to supply F-4 Phantom jets to Israel. After 10,000 demonstrators led by American Jewish organizations jeered French President Georges Pompidou at a dinner in Chicago in 1970 to protest France’s decision not to sell arms to Israel, Nixon was “furious.” The White House announced the cancellation of arms for Israel.²

• In its first month, the Trump Administration restored delivery of heavy munitions to Israel after they were embargoed by the Biden Administration.

• The first-year syndrome was evident in the Obama Administration’s inaugural year. George Mitchell was appointed Special Envoy for Middle East Peace on January 22, 2009, and he pressed for stronger U.S. action against Israel on issues such as settlements and the division of Jerusalem. In 2009, President Obama traveled to the Middle East, skipping Israel. He delivered his famous Cairo speech on U.S.-Muslim relations at Cairo University.

• In July 2009, Obama met American Jewish leaders in a closed meeting. Malcolm Hoenlein, of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, told Obama, “If you want Israel to take risks, then its leaders must know that the United States is right next to them.”

• “Look at the past eight years,” Obama replied. “During those eight years, there was no space between us and Israel, and what did we get from that? When there is no daylight, Israel just sits on the sidelines, and that erodes our credibility with the Arab states.”³

• In its ongoing efforts to improve relations with Iran, in 2021, the Biden administration delisted the Houthi regime’s designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization” (FTO) and “Specially Designated Global Terrorists” (SDGT). Biden’s policy also waived severe economic sanctions against Iran.

• Trump’s executive order to re-designate the Houthis as terrorists is “to eliminate the Houthis’ capabilities and operations, deprive them of resources, and thereby end their attacks on U.S. personnel and civilians, U.S. partners, and maritime shipping in the Red Sea.”⁴

Netanyahu will find that “the First Year Syndrome” is a dinosaur phenomenon: Trump today is by no means a freshman president. It appears he is picking up from his last term when he recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, declared the Golan Heights to be under Israel’s sovereignty, and invented the Abraham Accords (Part I). The Trump Administration, escorted by new secretaries of state and defense and backed by a supportive Congress, is setting a course for pro-Israel waters.

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Notes