- Israel is working to destabilize the Iranian regime.
- Senior security officials estimate that only the elimination of the regime’s “ideological core” currently ruling Iran could lead to its collapse.
The confrontation between Israel and Iran is escalating, and Israel’s threats leave little room for doubt: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei might become a legitimate target for possible elimination, along with his son Mojtaba, widely regarded as his successor.
While for years both Israel and the United States avoided direct threats against Iran’s top leadership, the past week has seen a dramatic shift.
Senior Israeli officials have publicly stated that the possibility of eliminating Khamenei is no longer a far-fetched scenario.
This marks a fundamental change in the rules of engagement in the de facto war between the two countries.
Since the start of the war with Iran, Israel has eliminated top commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Iranian military leadership.
Now, it appears that Israel might be preparing to target the Ayatollah himself and his son.
On June 20, Defense Minister Israel Katz issued an official statement announcing that he had instructed the IDF to intensify strikes on regime targets within Iran, in order to undermine the regime’s stability and increase deterrence in response to missile fire at Israeli population centers.
These strikes will continue alongside operations targeting nuclear facilities and scientists, aimed at thwarting Iran’s nuclear program.
Khamenei, who has held office since 1989, is far more than a symbolic figure. He holds sweeping governmental, religious, and security powers — from appointing military commanders, to approving foreign policy, to deciding on the conduct of elections. He is not only the most senior political figure in the country but also a symbol of Shiite identity and national unity.
According to Iran’s constitution, in the event of the leader’s death, a temporary leadership council is to be formed until the Assembly of Experts — an elected clerical body — chooses a successor.
In practice, however, the IRGC, which dominates the country’s security and economic apparatuses, is expected to play a central role during the transition, especially in the event of an assassination rather than a natural death.
On June 16, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told ABC News that Israel would take any necessary measure in the face of what he called an “existential threat” from Iran.
When explicitly asked about the possibility of eliminating Khamenei, Netanyahu responded: “It won’t lead to escalation — it will end the conflict.”
Nonetheless, senior security officials say it is doubtful that the assassination of Khamenei and his son Mojtaba alone would destabilize the regime. According to them, Israel must eliminate not only Khamenei and Mojtaba, but also all members of the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts — about 100 individuals in total. Only a powerful blow to the ideological, political, and religious structure of the Islamic Republic will bring about its collapse.
The core leadership of Iran consists of:
- Ali Khamenei – the ultimate authority.
- Mojtaba Khamenei – the designated successor, closely linked to the IRGC and considered more radical than his father.
- The Guardian Council – preserves the Islamic identity of the state and blocks any constitutional reforms.
- The Assembly of Experts – appoints the Supreme Leader and grants religious legitimacy to the regime.
Security sources say that the Mossad and the IDF could carry out such an operation, and that there is a high probability it would lead to the regime’s collapse.
This scenario would shake Iran to a degree not seen since 1979.
The chances of regime collapse would rise significantly, although much depends on the response from the Iranian public, the loyalty of the remaining military forces, and the extent of international pressure on the current leadership.
Such a scenario poses several threats to the Iranian regime:
- A dangerous power vacuum – No Supreme Leader or mechanism able to immediately authorize a legitimate replacement.
- Severe power struggles – Among the IRGC, conservative factions, and possibly reformists.
- Possible popular uprising – Triggered by confusion, weakness, and loss of centralized control.
Security officials estimate that the sudden collapse of the regime’s ideological core, without a prepared alternative framework, could plunge Iran into chaos and eventually lead to a military dictatorship.
This process would likely take a long time to unfold, but in the short term, it would serve Israel’s strategic interests: Iran would be consumed with internal instability, unable to attack Israel or resume its nuclear program.
