Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA)

Pessimism prevails in Israel following the June 17, 2024, meetings with U.S. Envoy Amos Hochstein regarding the possibility of a ceasefire in Lebanon. The prevailing assessment in Israel is that a war with Hizbullah is inevitable.

Senior officials in Jerusalem expressed significant disappointment after meetings with Deputy Assistant to the President, Amos Hochstein, concerning a potential ceasefire in southern Lebanon.

After meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Isaac Herzog, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and National Unity Party head Benny Gantz, Hochstein is scheduled to meet with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who liaises with Hizbullah.

The message brought by Hochstein to Jerusalem was clear: without a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, achieving a ceasefire with Hizbullah in Lebanon will be impossible.

Knowledgeable sources report that Hochstein conveyed to Prime Minister Netanyahu the need for an Israeli commitment to negotiate the 13 points of dispute on the land border with Lebanon, including the Shebaa Farms, as part of the ceasefire negotiations.

Israel had previously avoided such commitments and maintained ambiguity on this issue.

Hochstein indicated that even if a ceasefire with Hamas is achieved, negotiations with the Lebanese Government could be protracted, potentially lasting about a year. The envoy is reportedly working on the principles of a future agreement.

Israel’s political echelon perceived that Hochstein aims to secure an agreement that would push Hizbullah forces only 10 km away from the border, rather than implementing the 2006 UNSC Resolution 1701,¹ which mandates Hizbullah’s relocation north of the Litani River. The resolution demanded the area “between the Blue Line and the Litani River [to be] free of any armed personnel, assets, and weapons other than those of the Government of Lebanon and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).”

Hochstein and Gaza

Political sources in Jerusalem noted Hochstein’s protest against IDF forces entering Rafah and ignoring opposition by the Biden administration.

He inquired about Israel’s strategy post-occupation of Rafah, emphasizing that Israel needs a comprehensive plan for the aftermath to facilitate a ceasefire on the northern border.

The United States expects Israel to de-escalate security tensions in southern Lebanon to avoid an all-out military confrontation with Hizbullah, which could escalate into a regional war. The United States fears that such a conflict could prompt Iranian intervention and involve Shiite militias from Iraq and Syria.

Despite relative calm on the northern front due to the Eid al-Adha Muslim holiday, the IDF estimates that Hizbullah will resume attacks after the holiday ends on Thursday. Hizbullah appears to be coordinating closely with Hamas, attempting to pressure Israel into a permanent ceasefire and withdrawal from Gaza.

In response, Israel is formulating a strategy for a prolonged and intense conflict in southern Lebanon to repel Hizbullah forces from the border while maintaining low-intensity operations in Gaza, similar to those in Judea and Samaria.

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