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Strategic Suicide? Why Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei is Again Preparing for War

Western intelligence agencies believe that Khamenei’s character is a decisive factor preventing fundamental policy shifts in Iran – even amid severe crises or after the major military setbacks and humiliation inflicted by Israel.
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Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (Office of Ayatollah Khamenei)

Table of Contents

  • Western intelligence agencies assess that Khamenei’s personality is a central factor preventing any substantive change in Iran’s policies.
  • He is determined to take revenge on Israel and the United States and to restore Iran’s national honor, which he believes has been damaged.
  • Senior Iranian officials are now calling for preparations for another round of fighting with Israel.

While Israel prepares to thwart any Iranian attempt to restore its nuclear project or resume ballistic missile production – under the framework of enforcing the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon – Iran is displaying a firm and uncompromising stance.

On June 26, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made it clear that the Iranian Foreign Ministry had informed all relevant parties: “The Zionist entity must be told that Iran is not Lebanon, and that any attack on it will be met with an immediate response.”

Iran is now trying to recover from the powerful military blow dealt by Israel.

What worries the regime most is the deep intelligence penetration of the Mossad into the Islamic Republic.

Senior Iranian officials aligned with the hardline Khomeinist camp are calling for preparations for another war.

On June 25, General Ebrahim Jabari – a senior Revolutionary Guard figure and former advisor to General Hossein Salami, who was assassinated at the beginning of the war – declared: “We have defeated the Great Satan and its Zionist agent, but this is not the time to stop. We must keep our boot on Netanyahu’s neck – until he chokes.”

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is well known for his hardline and unyielding position toward Iran’s enemies, particularly Israel.

For many years, his stance has been consistent: any attack on Iran or its proxies in the Middle East will be met with a harsh response, and he will not back down in the face of international pressure.

Iranian regime sources in the country’s state media claim that the 12-day war with Israel reflected Khamenei’s uncompromising posture.

Despite the heavy Israeli Air Force bombardment and the elimination of senior IRGC figures, Khamenei did not surrender.  Instead, he demonstrated that protecting national pride and seeking revenge are guiding principles for him.

After the ceasefire was achieved, Khamenei emerged from hiding and declared on June 26: “The Zionist regime stretched out its filthy and bloody hand to commit crimes on our beloved soil… It should expect severe punishment.”

Security sources say this statement underscores his commitment to a harsh and meaningful response to any Israeli attack on Iranian territory. According to these sources, Khamenei’s previous statements about Israel – calling it a “cancerous tumor” and promising it would be “eradicated” – are not just rhetorical flourishes.

His stubbornness is neither incidental nor emotional. It is deeply rooted in ideological and religious convictions based on a perceived duty to protect the nation and the faith, including the right to have the final word – no matter the cost.

Khamenei’s stance is grounded in Shiite religious doctrine, which holds that war is not merely a political matter but a religious mission. Total destruction of the enemy is part of the broader strategic and theological struggle.

In his final years, Khamenei continues to adhere to a rigid strategic line, which prevents him from compromising even in the face of serious challenges. This strategy reflects not only Iran’s internal political landscape but also a deep conviction embedded in the country’s leadership.

To Khamenei, the ceasefire with Israel is seen as an opportunity to regroup and devise new ways to surprise both Israel and the United States. The war only reinforced his hardline positions, and he will continue to seek new ways to strike his enemies – exploiting their weaknesses and acting from a firm belief in the righteousness of his path.

Western intelligence officials emphasize several key traits that define Khamenei’s character and leadership style:

  1. Ideological rigidity – He refuses to yield to external pressure, even under dire economic and military conditions. He views himself as the “guardian of the nation and the faith.”
  2. Personal sense of duty – He regards his leadership as a divine mission and believes he alone can lead Iran on the right path, making it extremely difficult to persuade him to change course.
  3. Political conservatism – Khamenei prefers to maintain a hard line to avoid internal dissent or loss of control within the regime.
  4. Use of threats and aggressive responses – Khamenei tends to react swiftly and aggressively to threats, sometimes even escalating them to strengthen his domestic and international standing.

Western intelligence agencies believe that Khamenei’s character is a decisive factor preventing fundamental policy shifts in Iran – even amid severe crises or after the major military setbacks and humiliation inflicted by Israel.

Khamenei will continue to preserve his religious and political authority as the Supreme Leader of the Shiite faithful, in accordance with the principle of “Wilayat al-Faqih” – which holds that a religious leader is the legitimate sovereign until the return of the Hidden Imam. According to this principle, one must act decisively to preserve both the faith and the state.

Khamenei sees himself as a source of religious authority and has issued fatwas emphasizing the preservation of Iran as a supreme value in the struggle against its enemies.

Yoni Ben Menachem

Yoni Ben Menachem, a veteran Arab affairs and diplomatic commentator for Israel Radio and Television, is a senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Center. He served as Director General and Chief Editor of the Israel Broadcasting Authority.
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