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Hizbullah’s Equation: Tel Aviv’s Safety in Exchange for the Survival of Beirut’s Dahieh District

Nasrallah’s bunker and Hizbullah HQ are believed to be deep beneath the neighborhood
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Destruction in the Dahieh District of Beirut two years after the 2006 war.
Destruction in the Dahieh District of Beirut two years after the 2006 war. (Magne Hagesæter/CC BY-SA 3.0)

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Hizbullah continues to propagate its narrative through media channels, claiming that it successfully struck the headquarters of IDF Intelligence Unit 8200 and the Israeli Mossad in the Tel Aviv area.

Hizbullah asserts that it has established a new deterrence equation: an Israeli attack on the al-Dahieh neighborhood in Beirut will be met with a retaliatory strike on Tel Aviv.

The organization also maintains that it successfully avenged the death of Fuad Shuker, its military chief of staff, who Israel eliminated.

According to Hizbullah, the new equation established by Hassan Nasrallah is that any attack on Tel Aviv will be the response to Israeli actions taken in the al-Dahieh district in Beirut.

Commentators in the Arab world suggest that only time will reveal whether Hassan Nasrallah’s claims are truthful or exaggerated.

They argue that the Israeli narrative regarding the results of the IDF’s preemptive strikes on Hizbullah targets should be taken into account.

Some commentators believe Hizbullah remains determined to continue its attacks on Israel and will carefully plan its next moves to avoid detection, especially given that the killing of Fuad Shuker and the August 25 preemptive bombing raid indicate Israel has deeply penetrated the organization’s high echelons.

The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, which often serves as a mouthpiece for Hizbullah, recently criticized Israel.

The newspaper claimed that despite Israel’s formidable military capabilities, its political and security leadership struggles to translate this power into effective operations, even in response to Hizbullah’s attacks.

Hizbullah’s Mouthpiece Responds

In an article by Ali Haidar, a journalist known to be close to Hizbullah and Hassan Nasrallah, Israel was accused of spreading false narratives about the alleged attack on Unit 8200’s headquarters by Hizbullah.

Haidar asserted that Hizbullah fulfilled its promise to avenge Fuad Shuker’s assassination and is prepared for any confrontation, regardless of the consequences.

He claimed that while Israel failed in its attempts, Hizbullah successfully established the equation that an attack on the al-Dahieh district in Beirut would result in a corresponding attack on Tel Aviv, specifically the “Glilot” intersection, where the headquarters of Unit 8200 and the Mossad are purportedly located.

Hizbullah argues that this new equation, supposedly demonstrated by striking a strategic intelligence target in Tel Aviv, underscores its commitment to maintaining this stance and its willingness to target strategic sites in Tel Aviv, even if it leads to war.

According to Hizbullah, Israel will perpetually need significant American support in the region to protect itself whenever it crosses red lines in its conflict with Hizbullah.

The Al-Akhbar article urges Israel to revert to the previous rules of engagement that were in place before Fuad Shuker’s assassination in the al-Dahieh neighborhood. The article suggests that Israel cannot solely rely on the American Navy or its own military might.

Israeli security sources interpret this article as reflecting Hassan Nasrallah’s deep concern that Israel might launch another attack on the al-Dahieh district—Hizbullah’s main stronghold where Nasrallah himself is believed to be hiding in a bunker.

Such an attack could result in the destruction of the district and the elimination of senior Hizbullah figures.

Nasrallah, Imad Mughniyeh, and Qassem Soleimani with Ayatollah Khomeini’s son
After the 2006 Lebanon War, Nasrallah, Imad Mughniyeh, and Qassem Soleimani related to Ayatollah Khomeini’s son how they were dodging bombs in the Dahieh district in Beirut (Iranian press)

During the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Israel nearly destroyed the al-Dahieh district in Beirut with heavy aerial bombardments.

After the war, Nasrallah claimed that Israel had attempted to eliminate him, Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, and arch-terrorist Imad Mughniyeh, who were with him in the bunkers in the al-Dahieh district where they were conducting Hizbullah’s war. (See Soleimani’s last interview, “The 33-Day War.”)

Yoni Ben Menachem

Yoni Ben Menachem, a veteran Arab affairs and diplomatic commentator for Israel Radio and Television, is a senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Center. He served as Director General and Chief Editor of the Israel Broadcasting Authority.
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