Alerts

The Realization of Qassem Soleimani’s “Ring of Fire” Strategy

After Hamas, Israel must turn to the Hizbullah threat
Share this
Ismail Haniyeh eulogizes Soleimani in Tehran
Hamas would not exist without Iran’s military, financial, and political support. Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh eulogized Soleimani in Tehran on January 6, 2020. (Iran Press)

Table of Contents

The Gaza war is now in its eighth month, and it seems there is no end in the foreseeable future. The proposal Israel put forward as a basis for negotiating a deal relating to freeing the hostages held by Hamas was met with a cold shoulder by Hamas, which means that at present, the chances of reaching an agreement between Israel and Hamas are almost nonexistent. Moreover, according to Minister Benny Gantz, a current member of the Israeli War Cabinet, worse is still to come in the northern front facing Hizbullah. 

For the first time since its creation in 1948, Israel is facing seven active combat fronts choreographed by their Iranian patron and meant to annihilate Israel as a Jewish Zionist state: Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, the West Bank (Judea and Samaria), Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen. This unity of fronts meant to suffocate Israel was the “Circle of Fire” vision of Qassem Suleimani, the slain commander of the Quds Force in the IRGC. Not considered to be serious at the time, today it has emerged as a united coalition whose aim is to support Hamas in its war effort against Israel by waging a war of attrition and dragging Israel into an endless war that it could not sustain in the long run, militarily, politically, and economically.

Cartoon: Iran’s Toolbox
Iran’s Toolbox. (Yasser Ahmed, Twitter)

Facing this combined front, Israel has set its priorities since day one: eradicating Hamas and freeing the hostages, containing the Judea and Samaria front, and adopting a defensive deployment with offensive capabilities to face Hizbullah. The Iranian, Iraqi, and Houthi fronts have been put aside by Israel and trusted to the U.S. naval coalition’s interception capabilities.

Eight months later, none of Israel’s objectives has been attained:

Hamas has not been annihilated, even though it suffered a severe blow. Its mid-level leadership has been decapitated, but Hamas’s top leadership still breathes; twenty of its twenty-four battalions have been dismantled, and most of its military infrastructure has been destroyed. According to U.S. President Joe Biden, Hamas has suffered deep losses that prevent it from repeating attacks against Israel like the one carried out on October 7, 2023. On the other hand, the IDF has not destroyed all of Hamas’s massive tunnel network, and day after day, Israeli troops in Gaza keep uncovering new tunnels, some of them connecting Gaza and the Egyptian-controlled Sinai peninsula.

Hamas has proved its resilience. Its asymmetrical, guerilla-like warfare has enabled it to recover and impose itself on almost every territory that Israel has captured and withdrawn from in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is encouraged by the pro-Palestinian trend in world opinion, the protests in the United States and Europe, the International Courts’ positions accusing Israel of conducting a genocidal campaign, and the recognition by many European countries of Palestinian statehood. 

Paying the Price for Avoiding Confrontation

Israel is paying the price of long-term strategic errors. Over the last 18 years, all Israeli governments and chiefs of the army have chosen to buy peace by “feeding the beast”: Israel thought it could contain Hamas and Hizbullah’s wrath and manipulate them. Both Hamas and Hizbullah, who were believed by Israel to be “deterred,” spent this precious time preparing themselves for the military confrontation with Israel. Israel chose to refrain from seriously fighting Hamas. Every military encounter with Hamas ended with a cease-fire in which Israel claimed to have administered a severe blow to Hamas that would take years to recover. The same applies to Lebanon: Israel chose not to attack Hizbullah in Lebanon since 2006 (the end of the second Lebanon war) but concentrated on a sophisticated appellation, “the war between the wars.” That strategy was meant to prevent the military build-up of Hizbullah and focus on attacking convoys, warehouses, and bases in Syria and elsewhere.

Of course, in all its conflicts, Israel has been under pressure, particularly from the United States, to end the fighting before a conclusive end.

The result: In 2006, Hizbullah had around 10,000 missiles of all categories, whereas in 2023, the arsenal was estimated to be 200,000 missiles, some of them precision-guided missiles. Moreover, Hizbullah, together with its Iranian advisors, concentrated on the weapons that could neutralize Israel’s superiority on the battlefield: Against the Israeli air force, Hizbullah developed its mighty drone arsenal of attack drones and reconnaissance drones; against the Israeli tanks, Hizbullah chose the” Kornet” anti-tank missiles, and against the “Iron Dome” system, Hizbullah uses short-range missiles with hundreds of kilograms of explosives, such as the “Burkan” missiles with a 500-kilo warhead! Hizbullah trained its elite troops in urban warfare and paraded its forces four months before the October war. The parade was met with Israeli arrogance, mistrust, and contempt!

Hizbullah’s war games exercises in southern Lebanon on May 21, 2023
The general media was invited to observe Hizbullah’s war games exercises in southern Lebanon on May 21, 2023. (Hanna Davis, Twitter)

Finally, Israel made a severe mistake in assessing the Iranian position. Israel assumed that the elimination of Iranian advisors and commanders in Syria would not be met by an Iranian response. The April 14, 2024, attack by 360 ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles by Iran on Israel came as an Iranian riposte following the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1, 2023, and the killing of Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the highest Iranian military commander to be killed since Qassem Suleimani death by an American drone attack on January 3, 2020. The attack in Damascus transformed Iran from a passive/active participant into a potential active party to be taken into consideration by Israel.

What Now?

Strategically, Israel has to turn to its northern front from where the existential threat originates. Iran directs its proxies, led by Hizbullah, to the northern front in Lebanon and Syria facing Israel.

Iraqi militia leader Qais al-Khazali
Iraqi militia leader Qais al-Khazali on a visit to the Israel border. He is the leader of the pro-Iran Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia in Iraq.
Akram al-Kaabi
Another visitor to the Israel-Lebanese border was Akram al-Kaabi, the head of the Harakat al-Nujaba militia in Iraq.

Hamas can wait. It is within Israel’s backyard. Israel can, at any time, if Hamas infringes on the terms of a ceasefire, launch an offensive against Hamas, bearing in mind that the proposed ceasefire does not necessarily mean Israel withdrawing all troops from the Gaza Strip. Israel can still conduct a low-intensity campaign in Gaza, putting the Hamas leadership in a constant defensive position, chased and afraid to fall into Israeli hands, an exact copy of the scenario carried out by Israel in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank).

With the beginning of a ceasefire – if one can be negotiated – Israel can direct its elite troops to its northern front. This should be enough to trigger world powers to exert pressure on the Lebanese government to reach an agreement with Hizbullah that would allow the displaced Israelis in northern Israel to return to their homes and rebuild their communities. The same would apply to the Lebanese side. The presence of the civilian population on both sides of the border is a means to calm the passions of the fighting parties.

If such a settlement cannot be reached, Israel will have no choice but to engage in a costly war campaign that presumably would eventually end with a diplomatic agreement brokered by the United States and France.

Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah

Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, a special analyst for the Middle East at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, was formerly Foreign Policy Advisor to Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Deputy Head for Assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence.
Share this

Subscribe to Daily Alert

The Daily Alert – Israel news digest appears every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

Related Items

Stay Informed, Always

Get the latest news, insights, and updates directly in your inbox—be the first to know!

Subscribe to Jerusalem Issue Briefs
The Daily Alert – Israel news digest appears every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday.







Notifications

The Jerusalem Center
What makes a child believe killing a #Jew is justified?

In PA textbooks, Jews are called liars and frauds; their fate: elimination. This is #indoctrination—not #education. But change is happening. On East to West, @IMPACT_SE CEO Marcus Sheff exposes how #UNRWA-funded schools are fueling extremism—and what real reform looks like.  Listen now on Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/2JHqh973U  Watch on YouTube: youtu.be/8OkJTGNfVUc

11:43am
The Jerusalem Center
Highlights from the @Jerusalem_Post Annual Conference in NYC:

Dr. @Dan_Diker, President of the JCFA: “October 7 wasn’t just an attack on Israel — it was a blow to the U.S. on Israeli soil. It demands moral clarity and a united front between Israel and the U.S. to defeat jihadist terror.”

2:20pm
The Jerusalem Center
@XAVIAERD says it like it is

Well, @XAVIAERD says it like it is: If you’re part of “#Queers for #Palestine,” he’ll pay for your flight to #Gaza. Go see for yourself how they treat LGBTQ+ people over there. Don’t miss this bold take on the Israel-Hamas war and the woke right.

2:32pm
The Jerusalem Center
“This isn’t Israel vs. Hamas — it’s the frontline of the free world.”

“This isn’t Israel vs. Hamas — it’s the frontline of the free world.” On Our Middle East by @JNS_org, @Dan_Diker@KhaledAbuToameh (JCFA/@GatestoneInst) break it down: If Hamas isn’t crushed, Iran wins. The jihadis—from #Gaza to your campus—get the green light. Diker: “This war is for the West.” No fluff. No filters. Just raw insight from two insiders who actually know what’s going on.  Watch: youtu.be/4Aq_zcbb4Yo

2:15pm
The Jerusalem Center
5/5 Lt. Col. Kalo on East to West with @smartinezamir:

“This operation showcases Israel’s strategic intelligence superiority both regionally and globally. It demonstrates the moral commitment to recovered soldiers and also strengthens Israel’s position with allies.” youtube.com/watch?v=nIvNNi

2:07pm
The Jerusalem Center
4/5 The operation built on intelligence gathered during the 2019 #Baumel recovery

#Mossad agents operated under cover in #Syria for years, visiting a graveyard multiple times under fire to collect remains for DNA matching. The intelligence community’s evolution combines technology, big data analysis, and human intelligence capabilities.

2:02pm
The Jerusalem Center
3/5 This recovery coincided with the release of Israeli hostage Edan Alexander

This recovery coincided with the release of Israeli hostage Edan Alexander from #Hamas in #Gaza, significantly boosting national morale amid an ongoing conflict now stretching over 18 months. The dual successes demonstrate #Israel‘s unwavering commitment to bringing all soldiers home.

1:58pm
The Jerusalem Center
2/5 The operation used the power vacuum following #Assad’s fall from #Damascus

Lt. Col. Avi Kalo, former head of IDF Prisoners & Missing Persons Division, calls it “an outstanding event that brings hope and new spirit to the people of Israel.” The operation utilized the power vacuum following #Assad‘s fall from #Damascus, allowing #Israeli intelligence to deploy ground capabilities in #Syria.

1:56pm
The Jerusalem Center
1/5 Israeli forces recovered the remains of Sergeant First Class Zvi Feldman

In an unprecedented operation, Israeli forces have recovered the remains of Sergeant First Class Zvi #Feldman, missing since the 1982 Battle of Sultan Yacoub. The complex #Mossad mission was conducted deep within #Syrian territory, 43 years after his disappearance. This follows the successful 2019 recovery of Zachary #Baumel from the same battle.

1:54pm
The Jerusalem Center
A molotov attack on a bus = a “barbecue party”?

That’s what #Palestinian kids are being taught under @UNRWA  — from grade school to graduation. This isn’t education. It’s indoctrination. Marcus Sheff of @IMPACT_SE  breaks it down with @smartinezamir

12:51pm

Close