Alerts

Palestinians in a Quandary How to React to Possible Israeli Territorial Action

Already losing support among Arab states, Abbas is at a loss
Share this
Handala
Grassroots Palestinian pressure on the Palestinian leadership, starring Handala, a character who symbolizes defiance. (Samidoun, May 15, 2020)

Table of Contents

Israel’s declared intention to apply sovereignty over some territories in Judea and Samaria is provoking a storm in the Palestinian Authority and Jordan, and to a lesser extent in other Arab states. The question before us is what might happen on the Palestinian side if Israel does indeed take the step to annex or apply sovereignty over parts of the West Bank.

The Palestinian Authority has already announced the cessation of security coordination. However, my discussions with Palestinian sources indicates that coordination continues in alternative ways, and IDF forces continue to operate in the PA’s territories with the knowledge of Palestinian security forces.

As long as Jordan’s border crossings are in Israel’s hands, the Palestinian Authority cannot detach itself from the security coordination with Israel. Without such cooperation, the PA’s heads will not be able to cross over to Jordan, and that would sever their ties with the Arab world.

A Return to Violence?

Is the implied threat to renew terrorism realistic? No.

Arafat launched the second intifada when he had logistical support in Jordan, and beyond there, also in Syria, Sudan, and Iran. Today’s Jordan is not Jordan from back then, and Jordanian security forces are now blocking Palestinian terrorist activity from being launched from their territory.

The Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood with ties to the Royal Palace is also opposed to “Hamasification” within Jordan, and it is careful not to arm itself or allow any branch to follow Hamas’ footsteps.

Large arsenals of weapons can be found in the refugee camps in the West Bank and cities such as Yaabed, Jenin, Tulkarm, and Nablus camps, but these are weapons provided to supporters of dissident Mohammed Dahlan and are reserved for the expected violent power struggle after Abbas leaves the scene. So far, the violence against the IDF has been mostly throwing stones, but these firearms are being saved – at least for now – for internal conflicts.

Fatah’s Tanzim militia, which is a criminal organization in nationalist camouflage, is better off keeping the status quo because it is good for business. They do not want to challenge the IDF or Mahmoud Abbas to intervene. Therefore, they do not provoke the IDF, nor do they challenge Abbas, as long as Palestinian security maintains its distance from the refugee camps.

Surprisingly, Hamas also has no interest in overthrowing Abbas. Hamas understands that as long as Abbas demands full control of Gaza, Israel will not overthrow Hamas’ rule in Gaza, because Abbas will fill the vacuum. There is a shared interest between Hamas and Israel: Israel wants to keep Hamas rule in Gaza to prevent an expansion of an Abbas-led Palestinian state, a state that would have a safe passage route between the West Bank and Gaza dissecting Israel.

If terrorism is limited and security coordination continues, then what will happen?

Part of the Tanzim seeks to oust Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh’s technocratic government precisely because it has managed the coronavirus crisis well. They want to replace it with “government of organizations,” including Hamas and the Popular Front. This was at the center of the talks between Hamas’ Khaled Mashal and Ismail Haniyeh on the one hand, and Fatah’s Abbas on the other. However, since then, there has been a break in talks between the PA and the Popular Front. Meanwhile, a picture posted by Iran, showing Haniyeh as the Palestinian leader of the al-Aqsa “liberation,” must have cooled the enthusiasm, if any, for a deal with Hamas.

HaniyehatAlAqsa
A painting posted by Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei showing “Jerusalem’s liberators” on the Id al-Fitr holiday. Hamas’ Ismael Haniyeh is in the first row, second from the right, between Hizbullah’s Hassan Nasrallah and, presumably, Palestinian Imam Ekrima Sabri, the former grand mufti of Jerusalem. Behind Nasrallah is Ziad Nakhala, head of Palestinian Islamic Jihad. They stand beneath a heavenly cloud in the shape of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani.

If so, what will we see in the future from the Fatah-led government, considering the restrictions on a real war of terror? Possibly, another edition of “Popular Struggle” – stones, Molotov cocktails, and the like, if anything at all. In the absence of any real violent options, the Palestinian Authority will turn to a diplomatic struggle, dealing its cards with Jordan, Europe, and the Democratic Party in the United States.

Pinhas Inbari

Pinhas Inbari is a veteran Arab affairs correspondent who formerly reported for Israel Radio and Al Hamishmar newspaper, and currently serves as an analyst for the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.
Share this

Invest in JCFA

Subscribe to Daily Alert

The Daily Alert – Israel news digest appears every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

Related Items

Stay Informed, Always

Get the latest news, insights, and updates directly in your inbox—be the first to know!

Subscribe to Jerusalem Issue Briefs
The Daily Alert – Israel news digest appears every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

Notifications

The Jerusalem Center
Canada investigating Israeli-Canadian IDF soldiers?
JCFA senior researcher, Amb. Alan Baker slams the probe as a “political PR stunt with no legal basis.” “This isn’t justice—it’s a betrayal. Canada is siding with PLO propaganda over facts.”
11:29am
The Jerusalem Center
What makes a child believe killing a #Jew is justified?

In PA textbooks, Jews are called liars and frauds; their fate: elimination. This is #indoctrination—not #education. But change is happening. On East to West, @IMPACT_SE CEO Marcus Sheff exposes how #UNRWA-funded schools are fueling extremism—and what real reform looks like.  Listen now on Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/2JHqh973U  Watch on YouTube: youtu.be/8OkJTGNfVUc

11:43am
The Jerusalem Center
Highlights from the @Jerusalem_Post Annual Conference in NYC:

Dr. @Dan_Diker, President of the JCFA: “October 7 wasn’t just an attack on Israel — it was a blow to the U.S. on Israeli soil. It demands moral clarity and a united front between Israel and the U.S. to defeat jihadist terror.”

2:20pm
The Jerusalem Center
@XAVIAERD says it like it is

Well, @XAVIAERD says it like it is: If you’re part of “#Queers for #Palestine,” he’ll pay for your flight to #Gaza. Go see for yourself how they treat LGBTQ+ people over there. Don’t miss this bold take on the Israel-Hamas war and the woke right.

2:32pm
The Jerusalem Center
“This isn’t Israel vs. Hamas — it’s the frontline of the free world.”

“This isn’t Israel vs. Hamas — it’s the frontline of the free world.” On Our Middle East by @JNS_org, @Dan_Diker@KhaledAbuToameh (JCFA/@GatestoneInst) break it down: If Hamas isn’t crushed, Iran wins. The jihadis—from #Gaza to your campus—get the green light. Diker: “This war is for the West.” No fluff. No filters. Just raw insight from two insiders who actually know what’s going on.  Watch: youtu.be/4Aq_zcbb4Yo

2:15pm
The Jerusalem Center
5/5 Lt. Col. Kalo on East to West with @smartinezamir:

“This operation showcases Israel’s strategic intelligence superiority both regionally and globally. It demonstrates the moral commitment to recovered soldiers and also strengthens Israel’s position with allies.” youtube.com/watch?v=nIvNNi

2:07pm
The Jerusalem Center
4/5 The operation built on intelligence gathered during the 2019 #Baumel recovery

#Mossad agents operated under cover in #Syria for years, visiting a graveyard multiple times under fire to collect remains for DNA matching. The intelligence community’s evolution combines technology, big data analysis, and human intelligence capabilities.

2:02pm
The Jerusalem Center
3/5 This recovery coincided with the release of Israeli hostage Edan Alexander

This recovery coincided with the release of Israeli hostage Edan Alexander from #Hamas in #Gaza, significantly boosting national morale amid an ongoing conflict now stretching over 18 months. The dual successes demonstrate #Israel‘s unwavering commitment to bringing all soldiers home.

1:58pm
The Jerusalem Center
2/5 The operation used the power vacuum following #Assad’s fall from #Damascus

Lt. Col. Avi Kalo, former head of IDF Prisoners & Missing Persons Division, calls it “an outstanding event that brings hope and new spirit to the people of Israel.” The operation utilized the power vacuum following #Assad‘s fall from #Damascus, allowing #Israeli intelligence to deploy ground capabilities in #Syria.

1:56pm
The Jerusalem Center
1/5 Israeli forces recovered the remains of Sergeant First Class Zvi Feldman

In an unprecedented operation, Israeli forces have recovered the remains of Sergeant First Class Zvi #Feldman, missing since the 1982 Battle of Sultan Yacoub. The complex #Mossad mission was conducted deep within #Syrian territory, 43 years after his disappearance. This follows the successful 2019 recovery of Zachary #Baumel from the same battle.

1:54pm
The Jerusalem Center
A molotov attack on a bus = a “barbecue party”?

That’s what #Palestinian kids are being taught under @UNRWA  — from grade school to graduation. This isn’t education. It’s indoctrination. Marcus Sheff of @IMPACT_SE  breaks it down with @smartinezamir

12:51pm

Close