Alerts

Hassan Nasrallah’s Critical Mistakes since October 7, 2023

Nasrallah miscalculated Israel’s human and military assets 
Share this
Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah hung in effigy
Lebanese hung Hassan Nasrallah in effigy after the massive and devastating bomb blast in the Beirut Port in August 2020 that was attributed by many to Hizbullah explosives.(Twitter, August 8, 2020)

Table of Contents

Since Hassan Nasrallah opened his war against Israel on October 8, he made a series of strategic miscalculations that significantly weakened Hizbullah and harmed the people of Lebanon.

His reputation as a wise and effective leader was severely tarnished in Lebanon and across the Arab world, and eroded his credibility, leaving him viewed as a failure.

Nasrallah, the Secretary General of Hizbullah, had long boasted of his deep understanding of Israeli society, its political landscape, and media.

However, since his war began on October 8, 2023, he committed several strategic blunders, especially in his assessment of Israel’s capabilities and responses.

Here are some of his most critical mistakes:

Failure to Act on October 7

Nasrallah’s first major error occurred on the war’s first day, October 7, 2023. He failed to order the “Radwan” forces, stationed on the Israeli border, to invade northern Israel and seize the Galilee region. This could have occurred simultaneously with Hamas’s attack on settlements near the Gaza border. These forces had been training for years for such an operation and were combat-ready, but the order never came.

This missed opportunity could have allowed Hizbullah to score a significant victory over Israel. At the time, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) presence on the Lebanon border was thin, and Hizbullah could have relatively easily occupied parts of the Galilee and captured Israeli settlements and military bases.

Sources suggest that Nasrallah was not informed by Yahya Sinwar of the exact timing of Hamas’s “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation. While he was aware of Hamas’ broader intentions, the lack of precise information left him unprepared.

By the time he recovered from the surprise, the IDF had reinforced its positions on the northern border, and Hizbullah lost the element of surprise.

Ignoring Lessons from the 2006 War

Nasrallah’s second major miscalculation was failing to learn from Hizbullah’s experience during the 2006 Lebanon War. Once again, he dragged Lebanon into a dangerous conflict to serve Iran’s regional ambitions. By tying Lebanon’s fate to that of the Gaza Strip, Nasrallah faced harsh criticism both within Lebanon and from the Shiite community from which Hizbullah draws its support.

His actions led to devastation in southern Lebanon, resulting in hundreds of civilian deaths and displacing half a million people, many of whom have flooded into Beirut and other parts of the country.

Misjudging Israel’s Resilience

Nasrallah’s third error was in underestimating Israel’s national resilience. He believed that Israel could only endure short conflicts and was ill-prepared for a prolonged war of attrition, like the ongoing campaign in Gaza. He also expected that the international community would impose harsh sanctions on Israel and force it to end the conflict, which did not happen. Nasrallah miscalculated Israel’s response to the issue of hostages, assuming that it would cave to Hamas’ demands, but that, too, has proven false.

Underestimating Israeli Military Strength

His fourth mistake lay in underestimating the capabilities of the Israeli Air Force and intelligence services. The IDF had thoroughly prepared for the northern front, assembling a comprehensive and precise target list. The Israeli Air Force’s subsequent strikes were highly effective, and Hizbullah was left on the defensive, particularly after the Israeli intelligence services (SIGINT) infiltrated and disrupted its communications network.

Conclusion

Hassan Nasrallah failed to grasp that Israel is fighting for its survival in the region, and its citizens have no intention of leaving. His miscalculations led Hizbullah and the people of Lebanon to pay a steep price.

The image of Nasrallah as a shrewd and successful leader has been shattered – except for sycophantic Western media publishing fawning obituaries.

Today, Nasrallah is seen in Lebanon and the Arab world as a defeated and discredited figure, serving Iran’s agenda rather than protecting Lebanon. His errors left him on the defensive to his very end, struggling for survival in the face of Israeli attacks.

Yoni Ben Menachem

Yoni Ben Menachem, a veteran Arab affairs and diplomatic commentator for Israel Radio and Television, is a senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Center. He served as Director General and Chief Editor of the Israel Broadcasting Authority.
Share this

Subscribe to Daily Alert

The Daily Alert – Israel news digest appears every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

Related Items

Stay Informed, Always

Get the latest news, insights, and updates directly in your inbox—be the first to know!

Subscribe to Jerusalem Issue Briefs
The Daily Alert – Israel news digest appears every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday.







Notifications

The Jerusalem Center
What makes a child believe killing a #Jew is justified?

In PA textbooks, Jews are called liars and frauds; their fate: elimination. This is #indoctrination—not #education. But change is happening. On East to West, @IMPACT_SE CEO Marcus Sheff exposes how #UNRWA-funded schools are fueling extremism—and what real reform looks like.  Listen now on Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/2JHqh973U  Watch on YouTube: youtu.be/8OkJTGNfVUc

11:43am
The Jerusalem Center
Highlights from the @Jerusalem_Post Annual Conference in NYC:

Dr. @Dan_Diker, President of the JCFA: “October 7 wasn’t just an attack on Israel — it was a blow to the U.S. on Israeli soil. It demands moral clarity and a united front between Israel and the U.S. to defeat jihadist terror.”

2:20pm
The Jerusalem Center
@XAVIAERD says it like it is

Well, @XAVIAERD says it like it is: If you’re part of “#Queers for #Palestine,” he’ll pay for your flight to #Gaza. Go see for yourself how they treat LGBTQ+ people over there. Don’t miss this bold take on the Israel-Hamas war and the woke right.

2:32pm
The Jerusalem Center
“This isn’t Israel vs. Hamas — it’s the frontline of the free world.”

“This isn’t Israel vs. Hamas — it’s the frontline of the free world.” On Our Middle East by @JNS_org, @Dan_Diker@KhaledAbuToameh (JCFA/@GatestoneInst) break it down: If Hamas isn’t crushed, Iran wins. The jihadis—from #Gaza to your campus—get the green light. Diker: “This war is for the West.” No fluff. No filters. Just raw insight from two insiders who actually know what’s going on.  Watch: youtu.be/4Aq_zcbb4Yo

2:15pm
The Jerusalem Center
5/5 Lt. Col. Kalo on East to West with @smartinezamir:

“This operation showcases Israel’s strategic intelligence superiority both regionally and globally. It demonstrates the moral commitment to recovered soldiers and also strengthens Israel’s position with allies.” youtube.com/watch?v=nIvNNi

2:07pm
The Jerusalem Center
4/5 The operation built on intelligence gathered during the 2019 #Baumel recovery

#Mossad agents operated under cover in #Syria for years, visiting a graveyard multiple times under fire to collect remains for DNA matching. The intelligence community’s evolution combines technology, big data analysis, and human intelligence capabilities.

2:02pm
The Jerusalem Center
3/5 This recovery coincided with the release of Israeli hostage Edan Alexander

This recovery coincided with the release of Israeli hostage Edan Alexander from #Hamas in #Gaza, significantly boosting national morale amid an ongoing conflict now stretching over 18 months. The dual successes demonstrate #Israel‘s unwavering commitment to bringing all soldiers home.

1:58pm
The Jerusalem Center
2/5 The operation used the power vacuum following #Assad’s fall from #Damascus

Lt. Col. Avi Kalo, former head of IDF Prisoners & Missing Persons Division, calls it “an outstanding event that brings hope and new spirit to the people of Israel.” The operation utilized the power vacuum following #Assad‘s fall from #Damascus, allowing #Israeli intelligence to deploy ground capabilities in #Syria.

1:56pm
The Jerusalem Center
1/5 Israeli forces recovered the remains of Sergeant First Class Zvi Feldman

In an unprecedented operation, Israeli forces have recovered the remains of Sergeant First Class Zvi #Feldman, missing since the 1982 Battle of Sultan Yacoub. The complex #Mossad mission was conducted deep within #Syrian territory, 43 years after his disappearance. This follows the successful 2019 recovery of Zachary #Baumel from the same battle.

1:54pm
The Jerusalem Center
A molotov attack on a bus = a “barbecue party”?

That’s what #Palestinian kids are being taught under @UNRWA  — from grade school to graduation. This isn’t education. It’s indoctrination. Marcus Sheff of @IMPACT_SE  breaks it down with @smartinezamir

12:51pm

Close