Alerts

Is President Erdoğan Leading Turkey Toward a Dictatorship?

Over the years, his hold on power has seemingly become an addiction, pushing him to dismantle democratic safeguards.
Share this
President of the Republic of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan
President of the Republic of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Kremlin.ru)

Table of Contents

Recent developments in Turkey mark a dangerous new phase in what observers describe as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ongoing erosion of democratic institutions and his steps toward establishing authoritarian rule.

According to these sources, Istanbul’s popular mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, a leading presidential candidate from the Republican People’s Party (CHP) for the 2028 elections, was recently arrested alongside approximately 100 of his aides.

They face dubious charges ranging from corruption to alleged links with terrorist organizations, particularly the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), even as Erdoğan’s government engages in peace negotiations with the same group.

While Israel refrains from interfering in Turkey’s internal affairs, diplomatic voices in Jerusalem view these accusations as politically motivated and aimed at eliminating Erdoğan’s most formidable political rival.

It appears that Erdoğan is determined to remain in power for life, unwilling to cede leadership to rising political figures such as İmamoğlu, who enjoys unprecedented popularity.

His tactics mirror those of other power-hungry autocrats throughout history.

In a particularly striking move, Erdoğan allegedly orchestrated the revocation of İmamoğlu’s academic degree by Istanbul University on the eve of his arrest.

This disqualification, based on flimsy pretexts, prevents İmamoğlu from running for president, as a university degree is a prerequisite for candidacy in Turkey. Notably, he earned the degree in question more than 30 years ago.

Ironically, Erdoğan’s own political journey began with a struggle against authoritarianism. As a former mayor of Istanbul, he faced similar repression, only to later become entrenched in the very dynamics he once fought against.

Over the years, his hold on power has seemingly become an addiction, pushing him to dismantle democratic safeguards.

Recent events suggest that Turkey’s opposition has grown stronger.

Protests against İmamoğlu’s arrest are gaining momentum, posing an unprecedented threat to Erdoğan’s rule. Many Turks view the movement to free İmamoğlu as part of a larger fight to rescue their democracy.

More than 1,500 people have been arrested during the protests, but it is doubtful that these crackdowns will quell the growing unrest.

Israeli analysts warn that Erdoğan might escalate his response, potentially resorting to violent suppression similar to deposed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s brutal crackdown on protests in Syria in 2011 – a scenario that could even lead Turkey toward civil war.

However, there is also a possible scenario in which the protest movement could succeed in toppling Erdoğan’s regime, depending on the persistence and determination of the demonstrators.

Economic turmoil is further fueling discontent. The Turkish stock market has plunged, and the central bank has injected $14 billion to prevent the lira from collapsing.

Diplomatic sources speculate that Turkey is undergoing a deep internal crisis, but there is a possibility that Erdoğan could be ousted, either by the protest movement or even through a military coup. Thus far, the military’s generals remain on the sidelines, closely monitoring the unfolding situation.

Such a development could enhance regional stability.

Erdoğan has long harbored ambitions of dominating Syria, leveraging his proxy group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, to weaken Assad’s regime and assert influence.

Ultimately, Erdoğan’s actions threaten both Turkish democracy and the nation’s international reputation – a perilous trajectory that could reshape Turkey’s future and its role in the Middle East.

Yoni Ben Menachem

Yoni Ben Menachem, a veteran Arab affairs and diplomatic commentator for Israel Radio and Television, is a senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Center. He served as Director General and Chief Editor of the Israel Broadcasting Authority.
Share this

Invest in JCFA

Subscribe to Daily Alert

The Daily Alert – Israel news digest appears every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

Related Items

Stay Informed, Always

Get the latest news, insights, and updates directly in your inbox—be the first to know!

Subscribe to Jerusalem Issue Briefs
The Daily Alert – Israel news digest appears every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

Notifications

The Jerusalem Center
The Gaza Flotilla Is a Fraud

Far from a humanitarian mission, the latest 70-vessel spectacle on its way to Gaza from Italy is a costly act of political theater @FiammaNirenste1 @JNS_org

11:28am
The Jerusalem Center
The Assassination of Abu Obeida – Why Is Hamas Remaining Silent?

Senior Israeli security officials note that such silence is not new; Hamas often delays its statements following targeted Israeli assassinations, raising questions whether this stems from attempts to verify the information or from a deliberate strategy of ambiguity https://x.com/jerusalemcenter

11:25am
The Jerusalem Center
The Impact of Radical Legal Ideology: From the Classroom to the International Forum

Massive funding of Critical Legal Studies-style academic and extracurricular programs promotes anti-Western ideas and undermines international community institutions and legal conventions https://x.com/jerusalemcenter

11:23am
The Jerusalem Center
Western Countries Focus on Iran Technicalities, Ignore Ideological Bent

The West must look beyond nuclear “offsides” and confront the core issue: a regime in decline, anchored to a dying leader, ruling over a weary population hungry for change x.com/jerusalemcenter

11:19am
The Jerusalem Center
Israel, Gaza, and the Race Against Time

The Trump proposal to create a 10-year trusteeship levels the playing field and provides an opportunity for the Egyptians to open its border with Gaza @Dan_Diker

11:15am
The Jerusalem Center
Canada investigating Israeli-Canadian IDF soldiers?
JCFA senior researcher, Amb. Alan Baker slams the probe as a “political PR stunt with no legal basis.” “This isn’t justice—it’s a betrayal. Canada is siding with PLO propaganda over facts.”
11:29am
The Jerusalem Center
What makes a child believe killing a #Jew is justified?

In PA textbooks, Jews are called liars and frauds; their fate: elimination. This is #indoctrination—not #education. But change is happening. On East to West, @IMPACT_SE CEO Marcus Sheff exposes how #UNRWA-funded schools are fueling extremism—and what real reform looks like.  Listen now on Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/2JHqh973U  Watch on YouTube: youtu.be/8OkJTGNfVUc

11:43am
The Jerusalem Center
Highlights from the @Jerusalem_Post Annual Conference in NYC:

Dr. @Dan_Diker, President of the JCFA: “October 7 wasn’t just an attack on Israel — it was a blow to the U.S. on Israeli soil. It demands moral clarity and a united front between Israel and the U.S. to defeat jihadist terror.”

2:20pm
The Jerusalem Center
@XAVIAERD says it like it is

Well, @XAVIAERD says it like it is: If you’re part of “#Queers for #Palestine,” he’ll pay for your flight to #Gaza. Go see for yourself how they treat LGBTQ+ people over there. Don’t miss this bold take on the Israel-Hamas war and the woke right.

2:32pm
The Jerusalem Center
“This isn’t Israel vs. Hamas — it’s the frontline of the free world.”

“This isn’t Israel vs. Hamas — it’s the frontline of the free world.” On Our Middle East by @JNS_org, @Dan_Diker@KhaledAbuToameh (JCFA/@GatestoneInst) break it down: If Hamas isn’t crushed, Iran wins. The jihadis—from #Gaza to your campus—get the green light. Diker: “This war is for the West.” No fluff. No filters. Just raw insight from two insiders who actually know what’s going on.  Watch: youtu.be/4Aq_zcbb4Yo

2:15pm
The Jerusalem Center
5/5 Lt. Col. Kalo on East to West with @smartinezamir:

“This operation showcases Israel’s strategic intelligence superiority both regionally and globally. It demonstrates the moral commitment to recovered soldiers and also strengthens Israel’s position with allies.” youtube.com/watch?v=nIvNNi

2:07pm
The Jerusalem Center
4/5 The operation built on intelligence gathered during the 2019 #Baumel recovery

#Mossad agents operated under cover in #Syria for years, visiting a graveyard multiple times under fire to collect remains for DNA matching. The intelligence community’s evolution combines technology, big data analysis, and human intelligence capabilities.

2:02pm

Close