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U.S. National Intelligence Estimate
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U.S. National Intelligence Estimate
The U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran and Its Aftermath: A Roundtable of Israeli Experts
March 9, 2008 |
Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror
,
Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser
Between 2003 and 2005, the Iranians refrained from any nuclear activity under the influence of the impression created by America’s pre-emptive policies in the region, which served as the main instrument that enabled the Europeans to force Iran to postpone uranium conversion and enrichment. But when the Iranians realized in 2005 that there was no actual threat behind their fears of U.S. pre-emption, they decided to start conversion and then enrichment.
The Bush Visit and Tensions in the U.S.-Israel Relationship
January 7, 2008 |
Prof. Gerald M. Steinberg
The December “surprise” resulting from the publication of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate disrupted fifteen years of Israeli policy based on working with the international coalition to pressure Iran to drop its nuclear weapons program through sanctions and the threat of military action, and has reminded Israelis of the limits of American security guarantees and strategic cooperation.
Decoding the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program
December 5, 2007 |
Prof. Gerald M. Steinberg
Israel, the prime potential target for a nuclear Iran, cannot afford to take the chance of underestimating the threat, and therefore relies on what policy-makers refer to as a “worst-case” analysis. This means that the focus is on Iranian capabilities, rather than intentions, which can only be guessed.