Iran: From Regional Challenge
to Global Threat

This anthology of 31 recent studies by eleven leading security and diplomatic experts outlines the Iranian threat to Israel, the Middle East region, and the West. Iran’s progress in developing nuclear weapons is now openly acknowledged by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN watchdog, based in Vienna. Iran’s efforts to reach beyond the Middle East in order to penetrate the Western Hemisphere reached new levels when the U.S. disclosed that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). was seeking to work with a Mexican drug cartel in order to carry out a mass-casualty terrorist attack in the heart of Washington, D.C. Finally, Iran’s repeated threats to close off the Strait of Hormuz, and its naval maneuvers in that area, underlined how Tehran sought to use the dependence of the world on Persian Gulf oil to force the West to adopt new policies.

Sample Chapter: “What is Happening to the Iranian Nuclear Program” by Dore Gold

 

 

About the Authors

Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Dr. Shimon Shapira,
The editor of this anthology, is a senior research associate at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. He served as Military Secretary to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his first term, and is the author of Hizballah: Between Iran and Lebanon, 4th ed. (Tel Aviv: Dayan Center, Tel Aviv University, 2006).

Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror,
National Security Advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former program director of the Institute for Contemporary Affairs at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and Vice President of the Lander Institute in Jerusalem, is former commander of the IDF’s National Defense College and the IDF Staff and Command College. He is also the former head of the Research and Assessment Division of Military Intelligence, with special responsibility for preparing the National Intelligence Assessment. In addition, he served as the military secretary of the Minister of Defense.

Dr. Shmuel Bar,
The Director of Studies at the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel. He served for thirty years in the Israeli intelligence community and since 2002 has headed research projects – many of them for U.S. government agencies – on issues such as Iranian defense doctrine, negotiating behavior and susceptibility to signaling, command and control culture in the Middle East, potential paradigms of command and control over nuclear weapons in Middle Eastern regimes, deterrence of terrorism, the influence of religion on deterrence, and implications of a polynuclear Middle East, among others.

Amb. Dore Gold,
President of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, was the eleventh Permanent Representative of Israel to the United Nations (1997-1999). Previously he served as Foreign Policy Advisor to the former Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu. He has written numerous books and articles on the Middle East, including The Rise of Nuclear Iran: How Tehran Defies the West (Regnery, 2009).

Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Aharon Ze’evi Farkash,
Served as Director of IDF Military Intelligence from 2001 to 2006. He previously served as Head of the Technology and Logistics Division, and as Deputy Head of the IDF Planning Division.

Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Yossi Kuperwasser,
Director General of Israel’s Strategic Affairs Ministry, served in a number of senior roles in the IDF including head of the Research and Assessment Division of Military Intelligence. Previously, he was the senior intelligence officer of the IDF Central Command.

Amb. Zvi Mazel,
A former Israeli ambassador to Egypt and Sweden, is a Fellow of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.

Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah,
A special analyst for the Middle East at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, was formerly Foreign Policy Advisor to Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Deputy Head for Assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence.

Dr. Harold Rhode,
Studied in Iran at Ferdowsi University in Mashhad in 1978 at the early stages of the Islamic Revolution. In 1979, he received his Ph.D. from Columbia University in Islamic history. He joined the Office of the U.S. Secretary of Defense in 1982 as an advisor on Turkey, Iraq, and Iran. Since then he has served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and as advisor on Islamic affairs on the Pentagon’s policy planning staff. From 1994 until 2010, Dr. Rhode served in the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment. He is currently a Senior Advisor at the Hudson Institute, New York.

Uzi Rubin,
Has been involved in Israeli military research, development, and engineering programs for almost forty years. Between 1991 and 1999 he served as head of Israel’s Missile Defense Organization, and in that capacity he oversaw the development of Israel’s Arrow anti-missile defense system. He was awarded the Israel Defense Prize in 1996.

Lt.-Col. (ret.) Michael (Mickey) Segall,
Middle East analyst and consultant at the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, is a former Head of the Iran and Persian Gulf States desk in IDF Military Intelligence.

Contents

Foreword – Shimon Shapira

Part 1 – The Military Threat from Iran

The Threat from Nuclear Weapons

What Is Happening to the Iranian Nuclear Program?
Dore Gold

The U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran and Its Aftermath: A Roundtable of Israeli Experts
Yaakov Amidror, Aharon Ze’evi Farkash, and Yossi Kuperwasser

The Limited Influence of International Sanctions on Iran’s Nuclear Program
Yossi Kuperwasser

Iran Signals Its Readiness for a Final Confrontation
Michael Segall

Can Cold War Deterrence Apply to a Nuclear Iran?
Shmuel Bar

 

Other Iranian Military Capabilities

New Developments in Iran’s Missile Capabilities: Implications Beyond the Middle East
Uzi Rubin

The Revolutionary Guards’ Qods Force – Mission Accomplished!
Michael Segall

The Iranian Navy, the Strait of Hormuz, and Beyond
Dore Gold

Does Iran’s June 2011 Military Exercise Signal a New Defense Doctrine?
Michael Segall

Iran Holds Major Air Defense Drill Amid Tensions with Turkey
Michael Segall

 

Part II – Ideology in Islamic Iran

The Emergence of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ Regime
Dore Gold

Is Iran a Role Model for Arab Revolutions?
Michael Segall

Revolutionary Guards’ Influence Grows in Iran as Opposition Falters
Michael Segall

The Sources of Iranian Negotiating Behavior
Harold Rhode

 

Part III – Iran Spreads Its Tentacles

Latin America: Iran’s Springboard to America’s Backyard
Michael Segall

An Iranian Intelligence Failure: Arms Ship in Nigeria Reveals Iran’s Penetration of West Africa
Jacques Neriah

How Iran Helped Assad Suppress Syria’s “Arab Spring”
Michael Segall

Iran Sees New Opportunity for Regional Domination Despite Turkish Competition
Michael Segall

Deteriorating Relations between Iran and Turkey
Michael Segall

Could the Kingdom of Bahrain Become an Iranian Pearl Harbor?
Jacques Neriah

Why Iran Is Pushing for a Shiite Victory in Bahrain
Michael Segall

Rising Tension between Iran and the Gulf States
Zvi Mazel

 

Part IV – The Iranian Threat on Israel’s Northern Border

Hizbullah: A Creation of Iran

Hizbullah’s Veneration of Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei
Shimon Shapira

Has Hizbullah Changed? The 7th Hizbullah General Conference and Its Continued Ideology of Resistance
Shimon Shapira

Ahmadinejad in Lebanon
Shimon Shapira

Countdown to a New Lebanon Crisis: Iran Sends a Signal to Obama through Beirut
Shimon Shapira

The Fantasy of Hizbullah Moderation
Shimon Shapira

Iran Changes the Balance of Power in Lebanon
Michael Segall

 

Hizbullah Today

Hizbullah Discusses Its Operational Plan for War with Israel: Missile Fire on Tel Aviv and Conquest of the Galilee
Shimon Shapira

Iran Steps Up Arming Hizbullah Against Israel
Jacques Neriah

Hizbullah’s Predicament in Light of Syria’s Decline
Shimon Shapira

 

About the Authors

About the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs

About Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Dr. Shimon Shapira

Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Dr. Shimon Shapira is a senior research associate at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.