Middle East

The Arab Gulf states are feeling compelled to adopt an appeasement policy toward Tehran while with increasing dread they helplessly follow the nuclear crisis, epitomized by Iranian determination and aggression in the face of American weakness.

Today there is an internal battle among Turkish Muslims between forces that want to be part of the Western world and those that want to return Turkey's political identity to be based primarily on Islamic solidarity. But it isn't Ottoman Islam that these Islamist Turks seek to revive. Their Islam is more in tune with the fanatically anti-Western principles of Saudi Wahhabi Islam.

Two factors have led to Turkey’s shift away from Israel and toward Syria. First, Turkey no longer needed Israeli assistance to pressure the Syrian government to change its policy of providing safe-haven to the terrorist Kurdish Worker’s Organization (PKK). Second, in the past seven years, once secular Turkish politics have undergone a profound Islamist transformation.

In 2003-2005, Tehran engaged with the EU-3 for two years, exploiting the talks to race ahead with construction of key uranium enrichment facilities, while fending off punitive measures by the UN Security Council for three entire years. Iran today is far more advanced than it was then and the time for diplomatic experimentation is extremely limited.

Israel and post-communist, resource-rich states have similar geopolitical priorities in opposing terrorism and radical Islam. By developing closer ties with Kazakhstan - and with Eurasian countries in general - Israel can expand its ties to the secular Muslim Turkic states.

Iran is vigorously pursuing several missile and space programs at an almost feverish pace with impressive achievements. The solid-propellant Sejil missile signifies a breakthrough. Iran will face no significant hurdle in upscaling the Sejil to put most of the EU under threat.

The desire in Washington and Riyadh to repair damaged relations with Damascus is admirable, but should not come at the expense of Lebanon and the larger U.S. strategic goal of weakening Iranian influence in the Levant. While a diplomatic rapprochement with Syria might result in some marginal improvements in its behavior, this would likely have little impact on Syria’s thirty-year strategic relationship with Tehran.

It is of prime importance to prevent Iran from acquiring influence in post-war Gaza through any assistance programs.
Israel and the international community should transform the Palestinian Authority into the principal factor, along with Egypt, entrusted with the rehabilitation work in Gaza.

Hamas influence in Jordan and the West Bank is rising. Iran and Russia are moving to reshape the Middle East. At the same time, Jordan fears it cannot trust the political will of its traditional allies as Israel has diplomatically engaged Jordan’s adversaries – Syria and Hamas.

Russia’s long-term strategic goals include increasing its control of the Caucasus, especially over strategic energy pipelines. Russian continental power is on the rise. Israel should understand it and not provoke Moscow unnecessarily, while defending its own national security interests staunchly. Small states need to treat nuclear armed great powers with respect.